# The El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Drought Outlook in the United States | September 8, 2025 | Drought.gov

> NOAA's Drought.gov outlook dated September 8, 2025 explains ENSO phases and their typical US precipitation and temperature effects. It states La Niña is likely from September 2025 through January 2026 with greater than 50% probability, suggesting drought persistence in the Southwest and potential development in the Southeast.

- Date: 2025-09-08 · published 2025-09-08T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region US · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/22788-the-el-nino-southern-oscillation-and-drought-outlook-in-the-united-states
- Commodities: [Wheat (HRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/KWHEAT.md), [Sorghum](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SORGHUM.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md)

## Why it matters

A likely La Niña raises the risk of dryness in the southern US Plains and Southeast during winter, which can affect winter wheat and sorghum prospects and support feed grain prices.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: neutral
- KWHEAT: bullish ▲
- SORGHUM: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| KWHEAT | 2022-10-25 | [Drought Status Update for the Midwest and Missouri River Basin \| October 25, 2022 \| Drought.gov](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13319-drought-status-update-for-the-midwest-and-missouri-river-basin-october-25-2022.md) | +4.3% | -0.4% |
| KWHEAT | 2022-03-17 | [Southern Plains Drought Status Update \| March 17, 2022 \| Drought.gov](https://feedsoft.ai/events/42194-southern-plains-drought-status-update-march-17-2022-drought-gov.md) | +3.6% | +9.5% |
| KWHEAT | 2021-12-17 | [Drought and Demand Drive the 2022 Wheat Outlook - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/43643-drought-and-demand-drive-the-2022-wheat-outlook-agweb.md) | +7.2% | -7.3% |
| KWHEAT | 2021-03-26 | [Drought Update for the Southern Plains DEWS \| March 26, 2021 \| Drought.gov](https://feedsoft.ai/events/48023-drought-update-for-the-southern-plains-dews-march-26-2021-drought-gov.md) | -0.3% | +18.8% |
| KWHEAT | 2019-05-15 | [The price of wheat in the United States and Europe has increased dramatically](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12091-the-price-of-wheat-in-the-united-states-and-europe-has-increased-dramatically.md) | +8.5% | +15.2% |
| CORN | 2022-04-28 | [Drought Status Update for the Midwest \| April 28, 2022 \| Drought.gov](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13366-drought-status-update-for-the-midwest-april-28-2022-drought-gov.md) | -7.5% | -2.6% |
| CORN | 2020-09-24 | [La Niña: Outlook 2020-21 (September 2020) - World \| ReliefWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/51039-la-nina-outlook-2020-21-september-2020-world-reliefweb.md) | +2.4% | +7.3% |
| CORN | 2024-10-17 | [Corn Belt Precipitation Outlook Through Early November](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13147-corn-belt-precipitation-outlook-through-early-november.md) | +2.1% | +2.9% |

## Sources

- drought.gov: https://www.drought.gov/news/el-nino-southern-oscillation-and-drought-outlook-united-states-2025-09-08

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.