# Wall Street eyeing one big trade after Fed rate cut: Commodities

> JPMorgan analysts say commodities have historically posted positive returns around the first Fed cut, but outcomes depend on whether a recession follows. They estimate a 40% recession chance and note that precious metals respond fastest to rate cuts.

- Date: 2025-09-20 · published 2025-09-20T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/22761-wall-street-eyeing-one-big-trade-after-fed-rate-cut-commodities
- Commodities: [US Dollar (Broad)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DXY.md)

## Why it matters

The outlook is conditional: if growth holds, commodities could rally, but a recession would push them lower. For feed buyers, this macro backdrop adds uncertainty to price direction rather than a clear supply shift.

## Read by commodity

- DXY: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| DXY | 2018-02-22 | [NZ dollar follows Wall Street, commodities higher as investors reassess US rate track \| BusinessDesk](https://feedsoft.ai/events/66410-nz-dollar-follows-wall-street-commodities-higher-as-investors-reassess-us-rate.md) | +0.5% | -0.1% |
| DXY | 2023-04-12 | [The Commodities Feed: All eyes on US CPI \| articles \| ING THINK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36345-the-commodities-feed-all-eyes-on-us-cpi-articles-ing-think.md) | -0.4% | -0.6% |
| DXY | 2020-01-21 | [Weakening Dollar Good News For Commodities - Passport to Wall Street](https://feedsoft.ai/events/54999-weakening-dollar-good-news-for-commodities-passport-to-wall-street.md) | +0.6% | +1.3% |
| DXY | 2019-06-20 | [The Commodities Feed: Dovish Fed sees commodities rally \| snaps \| ING THINK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/58509-the-commodities-feed-dovish-fed-sees-commodities-rally-snaps-ing-think.md) | -1.1% | -0.8% |
| DXY | 2024-08-19 | [Sterling hits one-month high as Fed rate cut bets weigh on dollar \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/29068-sterling-hits-one-month-high-as-fed-rate-cut-bets-weigh-on-dollar-reuters.md) | -0.8% | -0.7% |

## Sources

- cnbc.com: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/20/wall-street-eyeing-one-big-trade-after-fed-rate-cut-commodities.html

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.