# Latam FX Talking: Performing well despite local hazards | articles | ING THINK

> ING's Latam FX outlook on October 13, 2025 says the Brazilian real is holding gains supported by high carry yields above 13%, with USD/BRL around 5.48. It flags Brazil's October 2026 election and fiscal risks, and says a warmer Trump-Lula relationship and lower 50% US tariffs would be positive for the real.

- Date: 2025-10-13 · published 2025-10-13T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region Brazil · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/22621-latam-fx-talking-performing-well-despite-local-hazards-articles-ing-think
- Commodities: [Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDBRL.md)

## Why it matters

A firmer real reduces the cost of Brazilian soybean and meal exports in dollar terms, which can soften global prices, while political or tariff shifts could change Brazilian export competitiveness.

## Read by commodity

- USDBRL: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDBRL | 2024-08-12 | [Latam FX Talking: Politics, fiscal & copper in play \| articles \| ING THINK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/11945-latam-fx-talking-politics-fiscal-and-copper-in-play-articles-ing-think.md) | -0.6% | +1.7% |
| USDBRL | 2024-03-22 | [Latam FX Talking: Policy rates are coming down quickly \| articles \| ING THINK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31428-latam-fx-talking-policy-rates-are-coming-down-quickly-articles-ing-think.md) | +0.5% | +5.6% |
| USDBRL | 2020-01-17 | [LATAM FX Talking: The mighty MXN \| reports \| ING THINK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55298-latam-fx-talking-the-mighty-mxn-reports-ing-think.md) | -0.1% | +2.9% |
| USDBRL | 2020-07-06 | [LATAM FX Talking: Reaching the limit of rate cuts \| reports \| ING THINK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/52403-latam-fx-talking-reaching-the-limit-of-rate-cuts-reports-ing-think.md) | +0.4% | -2.2% |
| USDBRL | 2020-06-16 | [Brazil: A monetary policy test for the BRL \| articles \| ING THINK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/52814-brazil-a-monetary-policy-test-for-the-brl-articles-ing-think.md) | +0.3% | +4.2% |

## Sources

- think.ing.com: https://think.ing.com/articles/latam-fx-talking-october-2025/

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.