# Semi-Annual Global Fertilizer Outlook - Rabobank

> Rabobank's semi-annual outlook says global fertilizer markets are entering a contraction phase as high prices erode affordability. It forecasts weaker demand in 2025 and a sharper decline in 2026, with urea consumption falling and phosphate consumption about 4% lower globally.

- Date: 2025-10-28 · published 2025-10-28T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/22326-semi-annual-global-fertilizer-outlook-rabobank
- Commodities: [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md), [DAP](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DAP.md)

## Why it matters

Lower fertilizer demand in 2026 eases the cost pressure on crop input budgets and could soften urea and phosphate prices, although tight supply from China limits the downside. Weaker input use can also affect future crop yields and grain balances.

## Read by commodity

- DAP: bearish ▼
- UREA: bearish ▼

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| DAP | 2025-11-05 | 5 | -4.4% | -3.7 | Rabobank's outlook for a contraction phase and roughly 4% lower phosphate consumption signals weakening demand sentiment that supports a price decline. |
| DAP | 2025-10-30 | 1 | -4.5% | -8.6 | Rabobank's outlook for a demand contraction (phosphate consumption down about 4%) published 2025-10-28 would weigh on DAP sentiment shortly before the drop. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| UREA | 2024-09-18 | [Fertiliser prices easing slowly – Semi-annual Global Fertiliser Outlook](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28222-fertiliser-prices-easing-slowly-semi-annual-global-fertiliser-outlook.md) | +0.2% | +5.6% |
| UREA | 2026-08-26 | [Fertilizer Outlook Mixed Heading ... \| Syngenta CA](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17862-fertilizer-outlook-mixed-heading-syngenta-ca.md) | +11.0% | +15.9% |
| UREA | 2024-04-29 | [AgriMarketing.com - Rabobank: Global Fertilizer Growth Expected Despite Market Challenges](https://feedsoft.ai/events/30659-agrimarketing-com-rabobank-global-fertilizer-growth-expected-despite-market.md) | -7.7% | -6.1% |
| UREA | 2023-04-08 | [Global Fertilizer Price Updates: March’ 2023 -](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5937-global-fertilizer-price-updates-march-2023.md) | +8.3% | +8.3% |
| UREA | 2024-09-11 | [global fertilizer demand set to see little growth \| World Fertilizer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28223-global-fertilizer-demand-set-to-see-little-growth-world-fertilizer.md) | +0.3% | +5.9% |
| DAP | 2024-09-18 | [Fertiliser prices easing slowly – Semi-annual Global Fertiliser Outlook](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28222-fertiliser-prices-easing-slowly-semi-annual-global-fertiliser-outlook.md) | -0.2% | +0.6% |
| DAP | 2023-04-08 | [Global Fertilizer Price Updates: March’ 2023 -](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5937-global-fertilizer-price-updates-march-2023.md) | +9.5% | -3.4% |
| DAP | 2024-09-11 | [global fertilizer demand set to see little growth \| World Fertilizer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28223-global-fertilizer-demand-set-to-see-little-growth-world-fertilizer.md) | -0.2% | -0.5% |

## Sources

- rabobank.com: https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/q011332992-semiannual-fertilizer-outlook-poor-affordability-to-pressure-global-fertilizer-demand-in-2026

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.