# US Milk Output Surges 4% As Herd Hits 31-Year High - EDairy News English

> U.S. milk production in September reached 18.99 billion pounds, up 4.0 percent year over year, with the dairy herd at its largest since 1993. CME block cheddar fell to $1.54 per pound in mid-November, its lowest since April 2024.

- Date: 2025-11-26 · published 2025-11-26T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/21960-us-milk-output-surges-4-as-herd-hits-31-year-high-edairy-news-english
- Commodities: [Milk (Class III)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/MILK.md)

## Why it matters

Record output and a rapidly expanding herd are pushing cheese and milk prices lower, a strongly bearish signal for dairy returns and feed demand.

## Read by commodity

- MILK: bearish ▼

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| MILK | 2025-12-03 | 5 | -8.1% | -3.2 | US milk output up 4% with the largest herd since 1993 and block cheddar at its lowest since April 2024 point to a supply glut weighing on Class III. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| MILK | 2020-10-22 | [September Milk Production Up 2.3% - EDairy News English](https://feedsoft.ai/events/50650-september-milk-production-up-2-3-edairy-news-english.md) | +0.8% | +7.8% |
| MILK | 2022-08-29 | [Point Of Equilibrium For Milk Prices - EDairy News English](https://feedsoft.ai/events/40199-point-of-equilibrium-for-milk-prices-edairy-news-english.md) | -1.9% | -1.3% |
| MILK | 2021-06-16 | [Mielke: Milk Production Estimates Raised Again - EDairy News English](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46578-mielke-milk-production-estimates-raised-again-edairy-news-english.md) | +0.5% | -2.7% |
| MILK | 2025-07-22 | [Milk Output Surges Past Expectations as Butter Prices Slide, 2025 Futures Rally on Export Strength - Dairy Herd](https://feedsoft.ai/events/23759-milk-output-surges-past-expectations-as-butter-prices-slide-2025-futures-rally.md) | -0.6% | -0.0% |
| MILK | 2023-05-25 | [More Milk, Lower Prices: Dairy Industry’s 2024 Forecast - EDairy News English](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35966-more-milk-lower-prices-dairy-industry-s-2024-forecast-edairy-news-english.md) | -3.5% | -7.8% |

## Sources

- en.edairynews.com: https://en.edairynews.com/us-milk-output-surges-4-as-herd-hits-31-year-high/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.