# Global phosphate production to hit just 45 Mt vs 75 Mt demand, Mosaic warns of critical shortage - Fertilizer Daily

> University of Illinois researchers report US DAP prices climbed from about $700 per ton early in 2026 to around $850. Mosaic has idled its South Fort Meade operations, and China's phosphate exports have collapsed to near zero this year. Mosaic warns that global phosphate output of 45 Mt falls well short of 75 Mt demand.

- Date: 2026-10-29 · published 2026-10-30T10:05:49.923Z
- Category: trade · region Global · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/2193-global-phosphate-production-to-hit-just-45-mt-vs-75-mt-demand-mosaic-warns-of
- Commodities: [DAP](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DAP.md), [Phosphate Rock](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PHOSROCK.md)

## Why it matters

Idled capacity and Chinese export withdrawal leave a large supply gap against demand, which supports continued upward pressure on phosphate prices. Feed-phosphate costs for livestock producers are likely to rise.

## Read by commodity

- DAP: bullish ▲
- PHOSROCK: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| DAP | 2020-09-03 | [PhosAgro will challenge Mosaic's argumentation — Fertilizer Daily](https://feedsoft.ai/events/51050-phosagro-will-challenge-mosaic-s-argumentation-fertilizer-daily.md) | +0.4% | -0.8% |
| DAP | 2021-03-11 | [Mosaic - Morocco and Russia Subject to Phosphate Fertilizer Import Duties](https://feedsoft.ai/events/48049-mosaic-morocco-and-russia-subject-to-phosphate-fertilizer-import-duties.md) | -0.6% | +1.1% |
| DAP | 2022-11-10 | [India's Demand Supports The Short-term Market Of Phosphate Fertilizer - News - New Agri Technology](https://feedsoft.ai/events/38991-india-s-demand-supports-the-short-term-market-of-phosphate-fertilizer-news-new.md) | +1.5% | -5.3% |
| DAP | 2020-11-23 | [Mosaic - U.S. Department of Commerce Issues Preliminary Countervailing Duty Determinations on Phosphate Fertilizer Imports from Morocco and Russia](https://feedsoft.ai/events/50089-mosaic-u-s-department-of-commerce-issues-preliminary-countervailing-duty.md) | +7.1% | +8.1% |
| DAP | 2022-05-06 | [Morocco's Phosphate Exports Surge 83% as Global Fertilizer Prices Soar \| Bladi.net](https://feedsoft.ai/events/41742-morocco-s-phosphate-exports-surge-83-as-global-fertilizer-prices-soar-bladi-net.md) | 0.0% | -12.2% |

## Sources

- fertilizerdaily.com: https://www.fertilizerdaily.com/20261029-global-phosphate-production-45-mt-mosaic-sulfur/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.