# IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society | November 2025 Quick Look

> The IRI November 2025 Quick Look puts La Niña at 67% probability for November–January, easing to 53% for December–February. Neutral conditions are expected to become dominant from early 2026, with El Niño odds rising to 35% by July–September 2026.

- Date: 2025-11-19 · published 2025-11-19T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/21854-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-november-2025
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md)

## Why it matters

The shift from La Niña toward neutral and possible El Niño later in 2026 lowers the odds of drought in South America and raises the risk of drought in Australia and Southeast Asia later in the year. This is a longer-term risk factor for oilseeds and palm oil.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: neutral
- CORN: neutral
- PALMOIL: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2019-11-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2019 November Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55979-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2019-november.md) | -2.0% | +2.0% |
| SOY | 2024-12-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| December 2024 Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26862-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-december-2024.md) | +3.8% | +8.6% |
| SOY | 2019-12-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2019 December Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55497-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2019-december.md) | +1.0% | +0.1% |
| SOY | 2020-05-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2020 May Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/53046-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2020-may-quick-look.md) | +0.2% | +2.6% |
| SOY | 2021-06-18 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| June 2021 Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46479-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-june-2021-quick.md) | +3.1% | +9.4% |
| PALMOIL | 2017-06-15 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2017 June Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/70407-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2017-june-quick.md) | -0.2% | +3.1% |
| PALMOIL | 2017-07-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2017 July Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/69874-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2017-july-quick.md) | +1.4% | +4.0% |
| PALMOIL | 2019-11-01 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| October Climate Briefing: El Niño Remains Neutral](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55983-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-october-climate.md) | +12.8% | +16.7% |

## Sources

- iri.columbia.edu: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/2025-november-quick-look/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.