# Slow hog slaughter, disease impact Q4 pork production trends

> USDA ERS cut its 2025 commercial pork production forecast by 25 million pounds to 27.5 billion pounds. Lower early-Q4 hog availability and disease problems in large producing states contributed. Processors reported higher processing spreads heading into December.

- Date: 2025-12-18 · published 2025-12-18T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region US · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/21673-slow-hog-slaughter-disease-impact-q4-pork-production-trends
- Commodities: [Lean Hogs](https://feedsoft.ai/c/HOGS.md)

## Why it matters

Smaller pork supply supports hog and pork prices, although the fourth-quarter seasonal slaughter peak normally pressures prices. Lower production also reduces demand for feed in the near term.

## Read by commodity

- HOGS: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| HOGS | 2023-06-21 | [Lower dressed weights bring Q2 pork production down](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35641-lower-dressed-weights-bring-q2-pork-production-down.md) | +0.6% | +7.7% |
| HOGS | 2024-10-28 | [Hog slaughter lower than expected](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28003-hog-slaughter-lower-than-expected.md) | +4.3% | +1.7% |
| HOGS | 2021-07-13 | [U.S. livestock: Hog futures rise as pork production estimates cut - AgCanada](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46233-u-s-livestock-hog-futures-rise-as-pork-production-estimates-cut-agcanada.md) | -2.4% | -1.8% |
| HOGS | 2022-08-19 | [Lower Slaughter Numbers Drive Pork Prices Higher - Pork Business](https://feedsoft.ai/events/40186-lower-slaughter-numbers-drive-pork-prices-higher-pork-business.md) | -3.4% | -5.9% |
| HOGS | 2025-03-26 | [USDA forecasts pork exports, production increases – AgriNews](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25745-usda-forecasts-pork-exports-production-increases-agrinews.md) | +0.3% | +2.6% |

## Sources

- nationalhogfarmer.com: https://www.nationalhogfarmer.com/market-news/slow-hog-slaughter-disease-impact-q4-pork-production-trends

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.