# IEA lowers 2026 oil glut forecast for first time since May | Reuters

> The IEA lowered its 2026 global oil surplus forecast for the first time since May, though it still expects supply to exceed demand by about 3.84 million barrels per day. Brent crude was trading lower, down more than 15% over the period cited.

- Date: 2025-12-11 · published 2025-12-11T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/21664-iea-lowers-2026-oil-glut-forecast-for-first-time-since-may-reuters
- Commodities: [Crude Oil (Brent)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BRENT.md), [Crude Oil (WTI)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WTI.md)

## Why it matters

A persistent surplus of roughly 4% of world demand keeps downward pressure on crude prices, which feeds into energy and fertilizer input costs for feed producers.

## Read by commodity

- WTI: bearish ▼
- BRENT: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| BRENT | 2025-10-14 | [World oil market to see huge glut in 2026, IEA says \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/22590-world-oil-market-to-see-huge-glut-in-2026-iea-says-reuters.md) | -4.5% | -0.3% |
| BRENT | 2017-03-08 | [Oil Drops Below $50 for First Time Since December on Supply Glut - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8362-oil-drops-below-50-for-first-time-since-december-on-supply-glut-bloomberg.md) | -9.1% | -3.0% |
| BRENT | 2024-06-01 | [Oil price forecasts cut as supply risks trend lower, Reuters poll finds](https://feedsoft.ai/events/30415-oil-price-forecasts-cut-as-supply-risks-trend-lower-reuters-poll-finds.md) | -2.0% | +7.9% |
| BRENT | 2024-12-11 | [OPEC makes fifth and biggest cut to 2024 oil demand growth forecast \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27123-opec-makes-fifth-and-biggest-cut-to-2024-oil-demand-growth-forecast-reuters.md) | +0.4% | +6.5% |
| BRENT | 2017-03-09 | [WTI oil prices fall below $50 for first time since December](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8365-wti-oil-prices-fall-below-50-for-first-time-since-december.md) | -3.7% | +1.3% |
| WTI | 2025-10-14 | [World oil market to see huge glut in 2026, IEA says \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/22590-world-oil-market-to-see-huge-glut-in-2026-iea-says-reuters.md) | -2.7% | +1.7% |
| WTI | 2017-03-08 | [Oil Drops Below $50 for First Time Since December on Supply Glut - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8362-oil-drops-below-50-for-first-time-since-december-on-supply-glut-bloomberg.md) | -10.3% | -3.5% |
| WTI | 2024-06-01 | [Oil price forecasts cut as supply risks trend lower, Reuters poll finds](https://feedsoft.ai/events/30415-oil-price-forecasts-cut-as-supply-risks-trend-lower-reuters-poll-finds.md) | -1.9% | +8.5% |

## Sources

- reuters.com: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iea-trims-global-oil-market-surplus-forecast-2026-2025-12-11/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.