# COMMODITIES 2026: India's surplus rice supply to weigh on global prices, reshape trade in Q1 | S&P Global

> S&P Global Platts projects India's 2025-26 rice production at 151.8 million mt, up 800,000 mt year on year, after record Kharif output. Buyers are expected to shift toward Indian origin, and government paddy procurement will keep supply tight until mid-January.

- Date: 2025-12-12 · published 2025-12-12T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: trade · region India · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/21591-commodities-2026-india-s-surplus-rice-supply-to-weigh-on-global-prices-reshape
- Commodities: [Rough Rice](https://feedsoft.ai/c/RICE.md)

## Why it matters

A large, price-competitive Indian supply is likely to pressure Thai, Vietnamese and Pakistani rice prices and reroute export flows in early 2026.

## Read by commodity

- RICE: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| RICE | 2024-12-11 | [COMMODITIES 2025: Rice prices likely to be pressured by large harvest, end to India export ban](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26927-commodities-2025-rice-prices-likely-to-be-pressured-by-large-harvest-end-to.md) | -0.7% | -5.4% |
| RICE | 2025-01-17 | [A return to form: How India’s renewal of rice exports will shape the market \| Global Trade Review (GTR)](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26465-a-return-to-form-how-india-s-renewal-of-rice-exports-will-shape-the-market.md) | +0.2% | -4.3% |
| RICE | 2026-03-17 | [Vietnam fragrant 5% rice prices fall to record low amid weak demand, ample supply \| S&P Global](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20260-vietnam-fragrant-5-rice-prices-fall-to-record-low-amid-weak-demand-ample-supply.md) | -3.9% | -5.2% |
| RICE | 2026-08-26 | [INTERVIEW: China import suspension drives India rice export concerns: TREACG \| S&P Global](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17886-interview-china-import-suspension-drives-india-rice-export-concerns-treacg-s.md) | +6.5% | +13.4% |
| RICE | 2026-02-04 | [CoBank: Rice prices fall more than other commodities \| TheFencePost.com](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20672-cobank-rice-prices-fall-more-than-other-commodities-thefencepost-com.md) | +1.3% | -5.9% |

## Sources

- spglobal.com: https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/121225-commodities-2026-indias-surplus-rice-supply-to-weigh-on-global-prices-reshape-trade-in-q1

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.