# USDA lifts 2025-26 global wheat stocks forecast as higher output offsets record demand

> USDA's December 9 WASDE raised its 2025-26 global wheat ending stocks forecast by 3.4 million tonnes to 274.9 million, the ninth-largest on record. Global production was lifted to 837.8 million tonnes, with higher crops in Canada and Argentina.

- Date: 2025-12-19 · published 2025-12-19T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/21549-usda-lifts-2025-26-global-wheat-stocks-forecast-as-higher-output-offsets-record
- Commodities: [Wheat (HRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/KWHEAT.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

A larger global carryover confirms ample wheat supply, which limits upside in export prices. Analysts said most of the changes were already priced in, so the market effect was limited.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bearish ▼
- KWHEAT: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| KWHEAT | 2019-03-04 | [Australia’s 2019-20 wheat output forecast higher \| 2019-03-04  \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60036-australia-s-2019-20-wheat-output-forecast-higher-2019-03-04-world-grain.md) | -3.6% | -2.4% |
| KWHEAT | 2019-10-14 | [USDA lifts global wheat stock estimates \| Farm Online \| ACT](https://feedsoft.ai/events/56500-usda-lifts-global-wheat-stock-estimates-farm-online-act.md) | +3.4% | +0.5% |
| KWHEAT | 2025-05-14 | [USDA forecasts lower wheat, corn, sorghum prices for 2025/26](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24718-usda-forecasts-lower-wheat-corn-sorghum-prices-for-2025-26.md) | +6.8% | +4.8% |
| KWHEAT | 2025-02-07 | [SovEcon raises 2025/26 Russian wheat export forecast amid higher beginning stocks \| Miller Magazine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14232-sovecon-raises-2025-26-russian-wheat-export-forecast-amid-higher-beginning.md) | -1.5% | -9.3% |
| KWHEAT | 2025-09-18 | [US wheat futures slip after USDA boosts global ending stocks](https://feedsoft.ai/events/22928-us-wheat-futures-slip-after-usda-boosts-global-ending-stocks.md) | -1.8% | -5.4% |
| WHEAT | 2019-03-04 | [Australia’s 2019-20 wheat output forecast higher \| 2019-03-04  \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60036-australia-s-2019-20-wheat-output-forecast-higher-2019-03-04-world-grain.md) | +0.7% | +5.2% |
| WHEAT | 2019-10-14 | [USDA lifts global wheat stock estimates \| Farm Online \| ACT](https://feedsoft.ai/events/56500-usda-lifts-global-wheat-stock-estimates-farm-online-act.md) | +4.5% | +1.5% |
| WHEAT | 2022-12-06 | [Australia's MY 2022-23 wheat output forecast at record 36.6 mil mt](https://feedsoft.ai/events/38214-australia-s-my-2022-23-wheat-output-forecast-at-record-36-6-mil-mt.md) | +9.9% | +9.2% |

## Sources

- agriinsite.com: https://agriinsite.com/usda-lifts-2025-26-global-wheat-stocks-forecast-as-higher-output-offsets-record-demand/
- ukragroconsult.com: https://ukragroconsult.com/en/news/usda-lifts-2025-26-global-wheat-stocks-forecast-as-higher-output-offsets-record-demand/

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.