# USDA estimates milk production upward trend to end - Dairy Star

> USDA left its 2025 milk production estimate unchanged at 231.4 billion pounds and cut its 2026 estimate to 234.1 billion pounds. The Class III price forecast was lowered on recent cheese weakness, while butter exports were raised.

- Date: 2025-12-20 · published 2025-12-20T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region US · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/21494-usda-estimates-milk-production-upward-trend-to-end-dairy-star
- Commodities: [Milk (Class III)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/MILK.md)

## Why it matters

Slower projected 2026 output growth offers mild support, but weaker cheese prices still point to lower Class III milk values.

## Read by commodity

- MILK: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| MILK | 2026-07-25 | [USDA raises milk production estimates - Dairy Star](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18527-usda-raises-milk-production-estimates-dairy-star.md) | -0.8% | +5.4% |
| MILK | 2024-12-11 | [USDA Provides Milk Production Estimates for the Next Ten Years - Dairy Herd](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26966-usda-provides-milk-production-estimates-for-the-next-ten-years-dairy-herd.md) | -0.5% | +8.4% |
| MILK | 2026-01-24 | [USDA increases 2026 milk production forecast - Dairy Star](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21063-usda-increases-2026-milk-production-forecast-dairy-star.md) | -0.5% | +2.2% |
| MILK | 2023-07-13 | [USDA Lowers 2023 All-Milk Price Forecast, Milk Production Estimates Remain the Same - Dairy Herd](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35061-usda-lowers-2023-all-milk-price-forecast-milk-production-estimates-remain-the.md) | -0.2% | +25.1% |
| MILK | 2018-02-08 | [USDA cuts milk production, price estimates - Brownfield Ag News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/66485-usda-cuts-milk-production-price-estimates-brownfield-ag-news.md) | -0.9% | +4.3% |

## Sources

- dairystar.com: https://dairystar.com/stories/usda-estimates-milk-production-upward-trend-to-end,30475

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.