# Dairy production and herd growth forecasted for 2026 but prices to drop | Capital Press

> USDA's new outlook projects 2026 U.S. milk production at 234.1 billion pounds, with a slightly larger herd of 9.555 million head. The all-milk price is forecast to fall about 11% to $18.75 per hundredweight, while whey prices are expected to hold up.

- Date: 2025-12-26 · published 2025-12-26T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/21492-dairy-production-and-herd-growth-forecasted-for-2026-but-prices-to-drop-capital
- Commodities: [Milk (Class III)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/MILK.md)

## Why it matters

A larger herd and higher output per cow point to lower dairy prices in 2026, which weighs on milk and dairy-derived feed ingredient values for buyers.

## Read by commodity

- MILK: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| MILK | 2024-05-14 | [2024 All-Milk Price Sees Growth, More Cows and Production Predicted - Dairy Herd](https://feedsoft.ai/events/30251-2024-all-milk-price-sees-growth-more-cows-and-production-predicted-dairy-herd.md) | -0.0% | +5.7% |
| MILK | 2024-02-29 | [Global dairy forecast: 2024 milk production and trade - Dairy Global](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31686-global-dairy-forecast-2024-milk-production-and-trade-dairy-global.md) | -4.1% | -4.8% |
| MILK | 2023-04-12 | [High production, low demand likely to depress milk prices \| Capital Press](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36564-high-production-low-demand-likely-to-depress-milk-prices-capital-press.md) | +0.1% | -11.9% |
| MILK | 2021-06-25 | [As Higher Milk Production Forecasts Settle In, Can Export Demand Help Save Prices? - Dairy Herd](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46748-as-higher-milk-production-forecasts-settle-in-can-export-demand-help-save.md) | -2.6% | -3.6% |
| MILK | 2017-04-12 | [Dairy Economic Update: 2017 milk production forecast and price cut -  \| Ag Proud](https://feedsoft.ai/events/71511-dairy-economic-update-2017-milk-production-forecast-and-price-cut-ag-proud.md) | +0.7% | +2.7% |

## Sources

- capitalpress.com: https://capitalpress.com/2025/12/26/dairy-production-and-herd-growth-forecasted-for-2026-but-prices-to-drop/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.