# ABARES lifts forecasts for canola, wheat, barley - Grain Central

> ABARES raised its forecasts for Australian wheat to 35.6 million tonnes, barley to 15.7 million tonnes and canola to 7.2 million tonnes in its December quarterly crop report. The total winter crop is now estimated at 66.3 million tonnes, the second highest on record. Southern New South Wales is the main exception, with output expected to fall 10% on dry spring conditions.

- Date: 2025-12-01 · published 2025-12-01T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region Australia · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/21468-abares-lifts-forecasts-for-canola-wheat-barley-grain-central
- Commodities: [Barley](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BARLEY.md), [Canola Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CANMEAL.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Higher Australian wheat and barley output increases export competition and adds to global supply, which is bearish for wheat prices. The record barley crop is a feed-grain supply increase for Asian buyers, though barley prices are holding up better on tighter fundamentals.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bearish ▼
- BARLEY: neutral
- CANMEAL: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2025-03-03 | [ABARES lifts forecasts for wheat, barley, canola - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25537-abares-lifts-forecasts-for-wheat-barley-canola-grain-central.md) | -3.4% | +0.5% |
| WHEAT | 2020-09-07 | [ABARES lifts national wheat, barley, canola forecasts - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/51080-abares-lifts-national-wheat-barley-canola-forecasts-grain-central.md) | +10.0% | +16.8% |
| WHEAT | 2020-11-30 | [ABARES lifts national wheat, barley, canola forecasts - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/50128-abares-lifts-national-wheat-barley-canola-forecasts-grain-central.md) | -0.9% | +8.3% |
| WHEAT | 2021-09-06 | [ABARES forecasts 32.6Mt wheat, 12.5Mt barley, 5Mt canola - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45027-abares-forecasts-32-6mt-wheat-12-5mt-barley-5mt-canola-grain-central.md) | +0.4% | +1.8% |
| WHEAT | 2022-09-05 | [ABARES lifts wheat, barley, canola estimates - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39533-abares-lifts-wheat-barley-canola-estimates-grain-central.md) | -0.5% | +4.5% |

## Sources

- ukragroconsult.com: https://ukragroconsult.com/en/news/abares-lifts-forecasts-for-canola-wheat-barley/
- graincentral.com: https://www.graincentral.com/news/abares-lifts-forecasts-for-canola-wheat-barley/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.