# COMMODITIES 2026: Russian wheat output expected to fall as farmers pivot to oilseeds | S&P Global

> S&P Global Energy CERA projects Russian wheat output at 84.1 million tonnes in MY 2026-27, down from 88.2 million in 2025-26, while SovEcon forecasts 83.8 million. Farmers are shifting area toward more profitable oilseeds, with wheat area falling from 26.9 to 26.3 million hectares.

- Date: 2025-12-15 · published 2025-12-15T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region Black Sea · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/21431-commodities-2026-russian-wheat-output-expected-to-fall-as-farmers-pivot-to
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Wheat (HRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/KWHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

A smaller Russian wheat crop would tighten global supply and reduce Black Sea export competition, supportive for wheat prices. Lower wheat area and rising oilseed plantings could also shift feed grain and meal balances.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- KWHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2022-07-12 | [French wheat crop to dip by more than 2.5m tonnes, as farmers switch to oilseeds - Grain Price News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/40423-french-wheat-crop-to-dip-by-more-than-2-5m-tonnes-as-farmers-switch-to-oilseeds.md) | +7.2% | +7.0% |
| WHEAT | 2018-04-19 | [Competing for Acres: 2018/19 Global Wheat Production to Fall - U.S. Wheat Associates](https://feedsoft.ai/events/65487-competing-for-acres-2018-19-global-wheat-production-to-fall-u-s-wheat-associates.md) | +0.3% | -1.2% |
| WHEAT | 2018-06-19 | [Wheat/barley price prospects on the rise; oilseeds to fall: ABARES - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/64497-wheat-barley-price-prospects-on-the-rise-oilseeds-to-fall-abares-grain-central.md) | -0.7% | -3.1% |
| WHEAT | 2017-01-21 | [Wheat and oilseed rape prices rise as pound remains weak - Farmers Weekly](https://feedsoft.ai/events/73055-wheat-and-oilseed-rape-prices-rise-as-pound-remains-weak-farmers-weekly.md) | -1.3% | +4.1% |
| WHEAT | 2022-07-06 | [Winter crop production expected to be above average with high global prices - Australasian Farmers' & Dealers' Journal](https://feedsoft.ai/events/40443-winter-crop-production-expected-to-be-above-average-with-high-global-prices.md) | -5.1% | -4.1% |
| KWHEAT | 2018-06-12 | [U.S. grains: Wheat surges after USDA cuts Russian output estimate - Grainews](https://feedsoft.ai/events/64555-u-s-grains-wheat-surges-after-usda-cuts-russian-output-estimate-grainews.md) | -6.6% | -9.5% |
| KWHEAT | 2023-05-15 | [Wasde: Tighter supply outlooks as global wheat output returns to norms - Fastmarkets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35891-wasde-tighter-supply-outlooks-as-global-wheat-output-returns-to-norms.md) | -7.6% | -10.7% |
| KWHEAT | 2022-09-30 | [GRAINS-Wheat Soars on U.S. Output Cuts, Russian Annexation of Ukraine Land](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39603-grains-wheat-soars-on-u-s-output-cuts-russian-annexation-of-ukraine-land.md) | -0.2% | -3.6% |

## Sources

- spglobal.com: https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/121525-commodities-2026-russian-wheat-output-expected-to-fall-as-farmers-pivot-to-oilseeds

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.