# Oil Surplus Outlook, Uncertain Geopolitics Led OPEC+ to Pause Hikes: Rystad - OPIS, A Dow Jones Company

> Rystad Energy said OPEC+ paused output increases for Q1 2026 due to an expected global crude surplus, uncertainty over US policy toward Venezuela, and the Russia-Ukraine war. Rystad projects 2026 supply exceeding demand by 3.75 million b/d. It said any extra OPEC+ barrels would risk pushing prices lower.

- Date: 2025-12-01 · published 2025-12-01T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: policy · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/21427-oil-surplus-outlook-uncertain-geopolitics-led-opec-to-pause-hikes-rystad-opis-a
- Commodities: [Crude Oil (Brent)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BRENT.md), [Crude Oil (WTI)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WTI.md)

## Why it matters

A projected large surplus signals bearish pressure on crude over the coming year. Lower oil prices reduce energy and freight costs for feed, though they can also weigh on biofuel-linked demand.

## Read by commodity

- WTI: bearish ▼
- BRENT: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| BRENT | 2021-05-27 | [Uncertain about Iranian oil, OPEC+ likely to stick to policy](https://feedsoft.ai/events/47011-uncertain-about-iranian-oil-opec-likely-to-stick-to-policy.md) | +3.1% | +9.9% |
| BRENT | 2025-06-06 | [HSBC flags downside risks to Brent price outlook due to OPEC+ supply hikes](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24392-hsbc-flags-downside-risks-to-brent-price-outlook-due-to-opec-supply-hikes.md) | +5.8% | +5.1% |
| BRENT | 2021-12-02 | [Oil Plunges 4.8% as Russia Is Said to Propose OPEC+ Output Hike - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6306-oil-plunges-4-8-as-russia-is-said-to-propose-opec-output-hike-bloomberg.md) | +9.7% | +14.1% |
| BRENT | 2021-09-01 | [OPEC+ sticks to gradual oil output hikes, ups demand forecast](https://feedsoft.ai/events/44977-opec-sticks-to-gradual-oil-output-hikes-ups-demand-forecast.md) | -2.2% | +7.5% |
| BRENT | 2021-09-01 | [Oil steadies; OPEC+ sticks to gradual output hikes \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/44979-oil-steadies-opec-sticks-to-gradual-output-hikes-reuters.md) | -2.2% | +7.5% |
| WTI | 2021-05-27 | [Uncertain about Iranian oil, OPEC+ likely to stick to policy](https://feedsoft.ai/events/47011-uncertain-about-iranian-oil-opec-likely-to-stick-to-policy.md) | +3.7% | +10.5% |
| WTI | 2021-12-02 | [Oil Plunges 4.8% as Russia Is Said to Propose OPEC+ Output Hike - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6306-oil-plunges-4-8-as-russia-is-said-to-propose-opec-output-hike-bloomberg.md) | +10.6% | +17.4% |
| WTI | 2021-09-01 | [OPEC+ sticks to gradual oil output hikes, ups demand forecast](https://feedsoft.ai/events/44977-opec-sticks-to-gradual-oil-output-hikes-ups-demand-forecast.md) | +1.3% | +9.5% |

## Sources

- opis.com: https://www.opis.com/resources/energy-market-news-from-opis/oil-surplus-outlook-uncertain-geopolitics-led-opec-to-pause-hikes-rystad/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.