# Politics to play a bigger role in agri markets as global tensions rise

> CBA's 2026 Agri Commodities Outlook says government intervention, trade policy and biofuel regulation will shape agricultural prices in 2026. It expects wheat to gain in the second half as global production normalizes and canola to recover late in the year.

- Date: 2026-01-01 · published 2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: policy · region Australia · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/21120-politics-to-play-a-bigger-role-in-agri-markets-as-global-tensions-rise
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Canola Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CANMEAL.md), [Live Cattle](https://feedsoft.ai/c/LCATTLE.md)

## Why it matters

Policy and trade shifts add price volatility to grains, oilseeds and beef, with wheat and canola seen firming later in 2026.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- CANMEAL: bullish ▲
- LCATTLE: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2025-12-04 | [Fertilizer markets soften but remain constrained by trade policies](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5185-fertilizer-markets-soften-but-remain-constrained-by-trade-policies.md) | -1.6% | -1.4% |
| WHEAT | 2021-01-29 | [Export rules by some countries force rise in global crop prices \| AGDAILY](https://feedsoft.ai/events/49099-export-rules-by-some-countries-force-rise-in-global-crop-prices-agdaily.md) | -9.7% | +0.1% |
| WHEAT | 2022-02-10 | [Palm rises as Indonesia expands export permit requirements - Markets - Business Recorder](https://feedsoft.ai/events/15843-palm-rises-as-indonesia-expands-export-permit-requirements-markets-business.md) | +0.3% | +16.6% |
| WHEAT | 2024-05-07 | [INDIA ELECTIONS: Restrictive steps for wheat, rice exports may persist amid sticky inflation \| S&P Global](https://feedsoft.ai/events/30206-india-elections-restrictive-steps-for-wheat-rice-exports-may-persist-amid.md) | +1.7% | +6.7% |
| WHEAT | 2023-12-21 | [India's agri exports may stay flat in FY24 due to ban on wheat, rice, sugar \| Economy & Policy News - Business Standard](https://feedsoft.ai/events/32644-india-s-agri-exports-may-stay-flat-in-fy24-due-to-ban-on-wheat-rice-sugar.md) | +0.7% | +1.5% |
| LCATTLE | 2022-04-28 | [Cattle markets take center stage in ag committees](https://feedsoft.ai/events/41983-cattle-markets-take-center-stage-in-ag-committees.md) | -1.2% | -3.2% |
| LCATTLE | 2017-09-06 | [Major players join forces to place sustainability at the heart of global commodity supply chains \| GEF](https://feedsoft.ai/events/68986-major-players-join-forces-to-place-sustainability-at-the-heart-of-global.md) | +1.0% | +3.8% |
| LCATTLE | 2023-08-22 | [EU Adopts New Regulation To Reduce Global Deforestation](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34614-eu-adopts-new-regulation-to-reduce-global-deforestation.md) | -0.1% | +1.8% |

## Sources

- commbank.com.au: https://www.commbank.com.au/articles/newsroom/2026/01/global-tensions-agriculture-2026-outlook.html

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.