# USDA Hikes 2026 Milk Production Forecast; Dairy Product Price Forecasts Mixed - Cheese Reporter

> USDA raised its 2026 U.S. milk production forecast by 300 million pounds to 234.3 billion on higher output per cow, and kept its 2025 estimate at 231.4 billion. It cut 2026 butter and cheese price forecasts while raising nonfat dry milk and dry whey forecasts. The Class III price for 2026 was lowered by 70 cents to $16.35/cwt.

- Date: 2026-01-16 · published 2026-01-16T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/21068-usda-hikes-2026-milk-production-forecast-dairy-product-price-forecasts-mixed
- Commodities: [Milk (Class III)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/MILK.md)

## Why it matters

A larger U.S. milk supply and lower Class III forecasts point to lower dairy prices, while higher protein price forecasts offer some support for whey and milk-protein inputs.

## Read by commodity

- MILK: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| MILK | 2025-04-11 | [USDA Hikes 2025 Milk Production Forecast, Lowers Dairy Product Price Forecasts - Cheese Reporter](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25122-usda-hikes-2025-milk-production-forecast-lowers-dairy-product-price-forecasts.md) | +0.8% | +6.8% |
| MILK | 2025-11-14 | [USDA Hikes 2025, 2026 Milk Production Forecasts, Lowers Most Dairy Product Price Forecasts - Cheese Reporter](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21954-usda-hikes-2025-2026-milk-production-forecasts-lowers-most-dairy-product-price.md) | +0.1% | -7.6% |
| MILK | 2025-06-12 | [USDA Hikes 2025, 2026 Milk Production Forecasts, Most Price Forecasts - Cheese Reporter](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24217-usda-hikes-2025-2026-milk-production-forecasts-most-price-forecasts-cheese.md) | -0.7% | -7.6% |
| MILK | 2026-09-11 | [USDA Raises 2026, 2027 Milk Production Forecasts; Price Forecasts Mixed - Cheese Reporter](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17487-usda-raises-2026-2027-milk-production-forecasts-price-forecasts-mixed-cheese.md) | -0.3% | -7.3% |
| MILK | 2026-10-09 | [USDA Lowers 2026, 2027 Milk Production Forecasts; Price Forecasts Mixed - Cheese Reporter](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17113-usda-lowers-2026-2027-milk-production-forecasts-price-forecasts-mixed-cheese.md) | +1.5% | +14.9% |

## Sources

- cheesereporter.com: https://cheesereporter.com/news/2026/01/16/usda-hikes-2026-milk-production-forecast-dairy-product-price-forecasts-mixed/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.