# USDA increases 2026 milk production forecast - Dairy Star

> USDA left its 2025 milk production estimate unchanged but raised its 2026 forecast by 200 million pounds to 234.3 billion, on higher output per cow. The Class III price for 2026 was cut to $16.35/cwt, while the Class IV price was raised to $14.45 on stronger nonfat dry milk prices.

- Date: 2026-01-24 · published 2026-01-24T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/21063-usda-increases-2026-milk-production-forecast-dairy-star
- Commodities: [Milk (Class III)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/MILK.md)

## Why it matters

A larger projected U.S. milk supply and lower Class III prices point to weaker dairy prices and softer demand for dairy-based feed ingredients.

## Read by commodity

- MILK: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| MILK | 2026-07-25 | [USDA raises milk production estimates - Dairy Star](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18527-usda-raises-milk-production-estimates-dairy-star.md) | -0.8% | +5.4% |
| MILK | 2025-03-13 | [USDA Lowers 2025 Dairy Product, Milk Price Forecasts, Also Reduces Milk Production Forecast](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25582-usda-lowers-2025-dairy-product-milk-price-forecasts-also-reduces-milk.md) | -0.5% | -7.2% |
| MILK | 2026-01-16 | [USDA Hikes 2026 Milk Production Forecast; Dairy Product Price Forecasts Mixed - Cheese Reporter](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21068-usda-hikes-2026-milk-production-forecast-dairy-product-price-forecasts-mixed.md) | -0.3% | +2.2% |
| MILK | 2024-02-29 | [Global dairy forecast: 2024 milk production and trade - Dairy Global](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31686-global-dairy-forecast-2024-milk-production-and-trade-dairy-global.md) | -4.1% | -4.8% |
| MILK | 2025-11-14 | [USDA Hikes 2025, 2026 Milk Production Forecasts, Lowers Most Dairy Product Price Forecasts - Cheese Reporter](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21954-usda-hikes-2025-2026-milk-production-forecasts-lowers-most-dairy-product-price.md) | +0.1% | -7.6% |

## Sources

- dairystar.com: https://dairystar.com/stories/usda-increases-2026-milk-production-forecast,30594

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.