# COCERAL in its first forecast for 2026 expects a decrease in the grain harvest in Europe.

> COCERAL's first 2026 estimate forecasts European grain and oilseed production of 296.7 million tonnes, down from 306.6 million in 2025, covering the EU and UK. Wheat (excluding durum) is forecast at 143.9 million tonnes versus 147.5 million, as yields return to more normal levels after 2025's record. Recent rainfall has improved soil moisture.

- Date: 2026-01-27 · published 2026-01-27T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region Europe · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/20990-coceral-in-its-first-forecast-for-2026-expects-a-decrease-in-the-grain-harvest
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Barley](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BARLEY.md)

## Why it matters

A smaller European harvest tightens export availability and supports wheat and barley prices, though favourable soil moisture limits how far the cut may go.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- BARLEY: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2025-12-26 | [EU and UK Grain Harvest 2026: Decrease in Volumes Expected](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21434-eu-and-uk-grain-harvest-2026-decrease-in-volumes-expected.md) | -0.5% | +0.3% |
| WHEAT | 2026-09-22 | [European grain harvest in 2026 expected to be down 9% year on year \| AGENCE EUROPE](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17426-european-grain-harvest-in-2026-expected-to-be-down-9-year-on-year-agence-europe.md) | -0.7% | -2.8% |
| WHEAT | 2022-09-29 | [COCERAL lowers forecast for EU grain harvest \| Miller Magazine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39524-coceral-lowers-forecast-for-eu-grain-harvest-miller-magazine.md) | +0.7% | -10.7% |
| WHEAT | 2022-08-30 | [StatCan experts have increased their forecasts for the harvest of grain and oil crops in Canada 30.08.2022 - UkrAgroConsult](https://feedsoft.ai/events/40004-statcan-experts-have-increased-their-forecasts-for-the-harvest-of-grain-and-oil.md) | -2.3% | +2.6% |
| WHEAT | 2024-01-02 | [Experts have lowered the forecast for the soft wheat harvest in the EU](https://feedsoft.ai/events/32067-experts-have-lowered-the-forecast-for-the-soft-wheat-harvest-in-the-eu.md) | -2.8% | -2.7% |

## Sources

- tridge.com: https://www.tridge.com/news/coceral-in-its-first-forecast-for-2026-expec-sbxxbect

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.