# Will El Niño be slow to develop? | World Grain

> World Weather analyst Drew Lerner expects La Niña to weaken over the coming weeks, with a gradual shift to neutral and a possible El Niño late in the third or fourth quarter of 2026. He considers NOAA's CFSv2 model too aggressive in forecasting El Niño by late spring.

- Date: 2026-01-22 · published 2026-01-22T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/20953-will-el-nino-be-slow-to-develop-world-grain
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

A slower El Niño onset implies fewer near-term weather threats to crops, supporting a benign supply outlook for feed grains and oilseeds.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: neutral
- CORN: neutral
- WHEAT: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2020-07-29 | [Will the United States produce a bumper crop? \| 2020-07-29  \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/51959-will-the-united-states-produce-a-bumper-crop-2020-07-29-world-grain.md) | -2.1% | +5.5% |
| CORN | 2021-11-04 | [US oat prices soar as supply dips due to drought, demand \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/44107-us-oat-prices-soar-as-supply-dips-due-to-drought-demand-world-grain.md) | +3.7% | +0.1% |
| CORN | 2024-12-12 | [Weak, short-term La Niña expected to develop during winter - Pro Farmer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26866-weak-short-term-la-nina-expected-to-develop-during-winter-pro-farmer.md) | -0.0% | +5.6% |
| CORN | 2017-08-18 | [U.S. Midwest cool temperatures slow crop stress \| World-grain.com \| August 18, 2017 19:19 \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/69306-u-s-midwest-cool-temperatures-slow-crop-stress-world-grain-com-august-18-2017.md) | -2.2% | -2.8% |
| CORN | 2018-04-05 | [Weather phenomena like El Nino affect up to two-thirds of world's harvests - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/65445-weather-phenomena-like-el-nino-affect-up-to-two-thirds-of-world-s-harvests.md) | +1.1% | +3.0% |
| SOY | 2020-07-29 | [Will the United States produce a bumper crop? \| 2020-07-29  \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/51959-will-the-united-states-produce-a-bumper-crop-2020-07-29-world-grain.md) | -1.4% | +1.9% |
| SOY | 2024-12-12 | [Weak, short-term La Niña expected to develop during winter - Pro Farmer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26866-weak-short-term-la-nina-expected-to-develop-during-winter-pro-farmer.md) | -4.4% | +1.8% |
| SOY | 2017-08-18 | [U.S. Midwest cool temperatures slow crop stress \| World-grain.com \| August 18, 2017 19:19 \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/69306-u-s-midwest-cool-temperatures-slow-crop-stress-world-grain-com-august-18-2017.md) | +1.2% | +4.1% |

## Sources

- world-grain.com: https://www.world-grain.com/articles/22316-will-el-nino-be-slow-to-develop

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.