# US CPC sees 75% chance of La Nina transition by early 2026 | Reuters

> The US Climate Prediction Center sees a 75% chance of La Niña transitioning to neutral ENSO by early 2026, with El Niño possible later in the year. Forecasters say there are no widespread drought conditions in major global crop areas and a wetter central US Plains later in summer could benefit HRW wheat, corn and soybeans.

- Date: 2026-01-08 · published 2026-01-08T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region US · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/20952-us-cpc-sees-75-chance-of-la-nina-transition-by-early-2026-reuters
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Wheat (HRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/KWHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

A weak La Niña fading toward neutral reduces near-term drought risk for major crops, which tends to weigh on weather premium in grain prices.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bearish ▼
- CORN: bearish ▼
- KWHEAT: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2025-07-10 | [Climate Prediction Center sees 56% chance of ENSO neutral conditions in August-October](https://feedsoft.ai/events/23660-climate-prediction-center-sees-56-chance-of-enso-neutral-conditions-in-august.md) | -1.0% | -3.0% |
| CORN | 2026-02-18 | [Top DTN La Nina to El Nino Analog Years Show Large US Corn Production](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20519-top-dtn-la-nina-to-el-nino-analog-years-show-large-us-corn-production.md) | +0.2% | +5.7% |
| CORN | 2025-12-11 | [La Niña to fade early next year, neutral Pacific conditions likely, U.S. forecasters say - AgCanada](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21415-la-nina-to-fade-early-next-year-neutral-pacific-conditions-likely-u-s.md) | +0.5% | +0.6% |
| CORN | 2025-08-14 | [Brief La Niña expected in fall 2025 before ENSO neutral returns, says US CPC \| GMA News Online](https://feedsoft.ai/events/23243-brief-la-nina-expected-in-fall-2025-before-enso-neutral-returns-says-us-cpc-gma.md) | +1.1% | +4.8% |
| CORN | 2024-07-17 | [La Nina Could be Positive for 2024/25 Growing Season in Brazil](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13558-la-nina-could-be-positive-for-2024-25-growing-season-in-brazil.md) | +2.6% | -1.3% |
| SOY | 2025-07-10 | [Climate Prediction Center sees 56% chance of ENSO neutral conditions in August-October](https://feedsoft.ai/events/23660-climate-prediction-center-sees-56-chance-of-enso-neutral-conditions-in-august.md) | +0.1% | -5.0% |
| SOY | 2025-08-14 | [Brief La Niña expected in fall 2025 before ENSO neutral returns, says US CPC \| GMA News Online](https://feedsoft.ai/events/23243-brief-la-nina-expected-in-fall-2025-before-enso-neutral-returns-says-us-cpc-gma.md) | -0.8% | -0.8% |
| SOY | 2025-12-11 | [La Niña to fade early next year, neutral Pacific conditions likely, U.S. forecasters say - AgCanada](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21415-la-nina-to-fade-early-next-year-neutral-pacific-conditions-likely-u-s.md) | -3.0% | -3.9% |

## Sources

- reuters.com: https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/us-cpc-sees-75-chance-la-nina-transition-by-early-2026-2026-01-08/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.