# Market data analysis & forecasts - Fertilizer market

> European fertilizer markets are centered on the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, which since 1 January 2026 requires imported fertilizers to be priced on emissions. Urea has eased 3 to 6 euros per tonne since early February, KAS/AN is stable, DAP is high but flat on subdued demand, and potash is nearly unchanged.

- Date: 2026-02-12 · published 2026-02-12T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: policy · region Europe · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/20936-market-data-analysis-and-forecasts-fertilizer-market
- Commodities: [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md), [DAP](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DAP.md), [Potash (KCl)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/POTASH.md)

## Why it matters

Higher CBAM costs keep European import prices elevated, but high Q4 inventories and weak demand are capping gains, which points to soft nitrogen and phosphate prices near term.

## Read by commodity

- DAP: neutral
- UREA: bearish ▼
- POTASH: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| UREA | 2026-09-01 | [The global nitrogen fertilizer market is gradually stabilizing](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5474-the-global-nitrogen-fertilizer-market-is-gradually-stabilizing.md) | +1.7% | +3.9% |
| UREA | 2021-06-28 | [State planner investigates fertilizer market, following record urea prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46503-state-planner-investigates-fertilizer-market-following-record-urea-prices.md) | +2.9% | +1.2% |
| UREA | 2023-01-14 | [Key questions asked of fertiliser market experts for 2023 \| The Scottish Farmer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/37719-key-questions-asked-of-fertiliser-market-experts-for-2023-the-scottish-farmer.md) | -0.5% | -22.3% |
| UREA | 2023-11-29 | [December '23 Farmer Fertilizer Focus - Phopshate](https://feedsoft.ai/events/4322-december-23-farmer-fertilizer-focus-phopshate.md) | -3.7% | -8.1% |
| UREA | 2022-01-27 | [Lower use of fertilizers could adversely affect wheat output: official - Markets - Business Recorder](https://feedsoft.ai/events/43444-lower-use-of-fertilizers-could-adversely-affect-wheat-output-official-markets.md) | -5.6% | -7.4% |
| DAP | 2025-10-06 | [TFI Chicago Conference: Insights into Fertilizer Markets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/22724-tfi-chicago-conference-insights-into-fertilizer-markets.md) | +1.8% | -3.0% |
| DAP | 2026-09-01 | [The global nitrogen fertilizer market is gradually stabilizing](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5474-the-global-nitrogen-fertilizer-market-is-gradually-stabilizing.md) | +0.3% | +1.6% |
| DAP | 2024-10-25 | [Fertilizer market anticipates little impact from updated Russian export quotas](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27784-fertilizer-market-anticipates-little-impact-from-updated-russian-export-quotas.md) | +2.7% | +2.7% |

## Sources

- zmp.de: https://www.zmp.de/en/futures/grains/news/market-report-market-data-analysis-forecasts-fertilizer-market-europe-2026-02

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.