# China and Iran Redraw Fertilizer Trade Lines

> StoneX's Josh Linville says China is expected to withhold urea and phosphate exports until August 2026, removing a significant share of traded supply. Iran's nitrogen production is reportedly returning after two months offline, with Iran ranking as the third-largest urea exporter.

- Date: 2026-02-17 · published 2026-02-17T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: geopolitics · region China · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/20529-china-and-iran-redraw-fertilizer-trade-lines
- Commodities: [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md), [DAP](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DAP.md), [TSP](https://feedsoft.ai/c/TSP.md)

## Why it matters

Lost Chinese export volume and Iranian supply changes tighten global urea and phosphate availability, supporting fertilizer prices into spring application. A sudden easing of China's export stance would be the main downside risk.

## Read by commodity

- DAP: bullish ▲
- TSP: bullish ▲
- UREA: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| UREA | 2026-03-03 | [Iran conflict disrupts Gulf fertilizer trade](https://feedsoft.ai/events/4433-iran-conflict-disrupts-gulf-fertilizer-trade.md) | +10.0% | +19.1% |
| UREA | 2026-04-09 | [Iran war’s impact on fertilizer and fuel \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20032-iran-war-s-impact-on-fertilizer-and-fuel-reuters.md) | +2.4% | -12.4% |
| UREA | 2026-07-02 | [Iran war: From fertilizer to food crisis? \| IFPRI](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18269-iran-war-from-fertilizer-to-food-crisis-ifpri.md) | +2.7% | +12.1% |
| UREA | 2026-07-30 | [Iran War Is Driving a Wave of Demand for CME Fertilizer Futures](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18669-iran-war-is-driving-a-wave-of-demand-for-cme-fertilizer-futures.md) | -4.0% | -1.5% |
| UREA | 2026-02-28 | [What the Iran attack means for oil, fertilizer and ag commodities - Pro Farmer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20635-what-the-iran-attack-means-for-oil-fertilizer-and-ag-commodities-pro-farmer.md) | +25.5% | +36.4% |
| DAP | 2026-04-07 | [Fertilizer spike adds up to $35/acre for US corn as Iran crisis bites](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20029-fertilizer-spike-adds-up-to-35-acre-for-us-corn-as-iran-crisis-bites.md) | +0.7% | +5.9% |
| DAP | 2026-04-01 | [Fertilizer Prices Have ‘Significant’ Rise After Attack on Iran](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5105-fertilizer-prices-have-significant-rise-after-attack-on-iran.md) | +4.0% | +4.3% |
| DAP | 2022-05-26 | [Black swan in the Black Sea: fertilizer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/41329-black-swan-in-the-black-sea-fertilizer.md) | -12.2% | -9.0% |

## Sources

- stonex.com: https://www.stonex.com/en-us/insights/china-and-iran-redraw-fertilizer-trade-lines/

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.