# Subsurface Equatorial Pacific Looking El Nino-like; Surface and Atmosphere Linger La Nina

> Climate Impact Company's February 9 ENSO diagnostic finds subsurface Pacific warming from a second Kelvin wave, which signals El Niño ahead. Surface and atmospheric indicators still show a lingering La Niña, and Niño 3.4 temperatures have returned to the La Niña threshold.

- Date: 2026-03-01 · published 2026-03-01T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/20523-subsurface-equatorial-pacific-looking-el-nino-like-surface-and-atmosphere
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md)

## Why it matters

The developing subsurface warming supports the case for El Niño later in 2026, which could affect crop weather in major exporting regions. Current surface conditions do not yet point to an immediate price impact.

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2020-09-10 | [La Nina develops during peak hurricane season \| National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](https://feedsoft.ai/events/51040-la-nina-develops-during-peak-hurricane-season-national-oceanic-and-atmospheric.md) | +5.5% | +7.4% |
| CORN | 2024-05-09 | [El Nino and La Nina \| Red River Farm Network](https://feedsoft.ai/events/30153-el-nino-and-la-nina-red-river-farm-network.md) | +2.7% | +0.5% |
| CORN | 2025-01-09 | [La Niña Emerges in Pacific Triggering Global Weather Changes - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26406-la-nina-emerges-in-pacific-triggering-global-weather-changes-bloomberg.md) | +4.1% | +5.7% |
| CORN | 2023-04-09 | [El Niño could arrive at a dangerous time for the Pacific. Here's how local farmers are preparing - ABC News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36319-el-nino-could-arrive-at-a-dangerous-time-for-the-pacific-here-s-how-local.md) | +1.8% | -0.5% |
| CORN | 2024-06-20 | [NOAA Pacific Ocean Analytics Support Ideas of La Nina Holding Off Until Later in Summer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/29660-noaa-pacific-ocean-analytics-support-ideas-of-la-nina-holding-off-until-later.md) | -6.0% | -9.5% |
| SOY | 2020-09-10 | [La Nina develops during peak hurricane season \| National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](https://feedsoft.ai/events/51040-la-nina-develops-during-peak-hurricane-season-national-oceanic-and-atmospheric.md) | +3.2% | +7.3% |
| SOY | 2024-05-09 | [El Nino and La Nina \| Red River Farm Network](https://feedsoft.ai/events/30153-el-nino-and-la-nina-red-river-farm-network.md) | +0.1% | -1.1% |
| SOY | 2025-01-09 | [La Niña Emerges in Pacific Triggering Global Weather Changes - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26406-la-nina-emerges-in-pacific-triggering-global-weather-changes-bloomberg.md) | +5.6% | +7.4% |

## Sources

- climateimpactcompany.com: https://climateimpactcompany.com/weekly-enso-diagnostics-report-ocean-surface-atmosphere-linger-la-nina-subsurface-warming-is-strengthening-rapidly-signals-el-nino-ahead-2-2/

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.