# USD/VND: Oil shock risks weaker Dong – MUFG

> MUFG warns that a prolonged Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure could push USD/VND above 27,000 in 2026. Its base case is 26,300 by March and 26,600 by December, assuming de-escalation and falling oil prices. A tail scenario with oil at $120 would take the rate to 27,700 or higher.

- Date: 2026-03-18 · published 2026-03-18T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region Vietnam · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/20470-usd-vnd-oil-shock-risks-weaker-dong-mufg
- Commodities: [Vietnamese Dong (VND per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDVND.md), [Crude Oil (Brent)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BRENT.md)

## Why it matters

The forecast ties dong weakness to oil shock scenarios, which would raise feed import costs for Vietnamese buyers. It is an analyst forecast rather than a market-moving event.

## Read by commodity

- BRENT: bullish ▲
- USDVND: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| BRENT | 2026-03-17 | [USD/THB: BofA raises Thailand baht forecast on oil shock, tourism weakness By Investing.com](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20444-usd-thb-bofa-raises-thailand-baht-forecast-on-oil-shock-tourism-weakness-by.md) | +1.2% | +5.4% |
| BRENT | 2023-12-14 | [U.S. crude oil rises 3% on weaker dollar, slightly improved 2024 demand outlook](https://feedsoft.ai/events/32887-u-s-crude-oil-rises-3-on-weaker-dollar-slightly-improved-2024-demand-outlook.md) | +8.4% | +6.6% |
| BRENT | 2021-06-30 | [Rupee weakens further amid strong dollar, rising oil prices - Daijiworld.com](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46886-rupee-weakens-further-amid-strong-dollar-rising-oil-prices-daijiworld-com.md) | +0.1% | -0.5% |
| BRENT | 2026-09-28 | [Rand weakens as oil prices rise and rate-hike fears support dollar](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17765-rand-weakens-as-oil-prices-rise-and-rate-hike-fears-support-dollar.md) | +6.5% | +1.3% |
| BRENT | 2019-02-01 | [Oil rises on strong US jobs data and falling rig count](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60760-oil-rises-on-strong-us-jobs-data-and-falling-rig-count.md) | -1.4% | +5.4% |

## Sources

- fxstreet.com: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-vnd-oil-shock-risks-weaker-dong-mufg-202603182347

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.