# EUR/USD: Real interest rates still important | articles | ING THINK

> ING analysis argues that real interest rate differentials, not only the energy terms-of-trade shock, will drive EUR/USD during the Middle East energy shock. It sees scope for a weaker dollar as expectations of further Fed tightening look overstated.

- Date: 2026-03-30 · published 2026-03-30T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/20373-eur-usd-real-interest-rates-still-important-articles-ing-think
- Commodities: [Euro (USD per EUR)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/EURUSD.md), [US Dollar (Broad)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DXY.md)

## Why it matters

A weaker dollar would make dollar-priced commodities such as grains and oilseeds cheaper for euro buyers, supporting European import demand. The view is a currency outlook rather than a new supply event.

## Read by commodity

- DXY: bearish ▼
- EURUSD: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| EURUSD | 2022-02-03 | [EUR/USD: A new range after the ECB meeting \| articles \| ING THINK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9872-eur-usd-a-new-range-after-the-ecb-meeting-articles-ing-think.md) | +1.2% | -2.2% |
| EURUSD | 2020-04-28 | [EUR & ECB crib sheet \| articles \| ING THINK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/53853-eur-and-ecb-crib-sheet-articles-ing-think.md) | +0.8% | +1.3% |
| EURUSD | 2020-12-08 | [EUR and ECB Crib Sheet \| articles \| ING THINK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/49861-eur-and-ecb-crib-sheet-articles-ing-think.md) | +0.1% | +1.0% |
| EURUSD | 2020-07-28 | [Rates Spark: The weaker USD, the Fed and cross currency \| articles \| ING THINK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/52298-rates-spark-the-weaker-usd-the-fed-and-cross-currency-articles-ing-think.md) | 0.0% | +0.5% |
| EURUSD | 2021-03-10 | [EUR and ECB Cribsheet \| articles \| ING THINK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/48340-eur-and-ecb-cribsheet-articles-ing-think.md) | +0.1% | -0.3% |
| DXY | 2023-01-19 | [Rates Spark: The party goes on \| articles \| ING THINK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/38006-rates-spark-the-party-goes-on-articles-ing-think.md) | -0.1% | +1.2% |
| DXY | 2020-08-28 | [Fed: We really, really, really aren’t going to raise rates soon… \| articles \| ING THINK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/51790-fed-we-really-really-really-aren-t-going-to-raise-rates-soon-articles-ing-think.md) | -0.5% | +1.0% |
| DXY | 2018-12-13 | [EUR & ECB: No fireworks \| articles \| ING THINK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61767-eur-and-ecb-no-fireworks-articles-ing-think.md) | -0.1% | -1.9% |

## Sources

- think.ing.com: https://think.ing.com/articles/eur-usd-real-interest-rates-still-important/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.