# U.S. milk production surge caps prices despite export demand

> USDA data showed U.S. milk production in January 2026 at 19.81 billion pounds, up 3.2% from a year earlier, with the dairy herd at 9.58 million cows. Class III futures have traded in roughly a $2 range this year, with the April contract capped near $18 and supported around $16. U.S. dairy exports in December 2025 rose 15% year over year.

- Date: 2026-03-16 · published 2026-03-16T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: market · region US · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/20315-u-s-milk-production-surge-caps-prices-despite-export-demand
- Commodities: [Milk (Class III)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/MILK.md)

## Why it matters

Heavy milk supply limits how far dairy futures can rally, even with firm export demand for cheese and other products. For feed buyers, the outlook points to steady dairy-cow feed demand rather than a sharp price-driven shift.

## Read by commodity

- MILK: neutral

## Sources

- farmprogress.com: https://www.farmprogress.com/commentary/will-this-week-s-milk-reports-change-prices-

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.