# Outlook for US wheat: fewer acres, lower production | Baking Business

> The Andersons' Matt Murphy told the North American Millers' Association conference that US wheat exports will likely decline in 2026-27 as normalized global trade flows and large world supplies return. US exports had their strongest first four months in a decade in 2025-26 due to competitive pricing and disruptions in competing regions.

- Date: 2026-03-26 · published 2026-03-26T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region US · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/20217-outlook-for-us-wheat-fewer-acres-lower-production-baking-business
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Wheat (HRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/KWHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Expected weaker export demand and large global supplies keep US wheat prices under pressure, despite lower production, limiting bullish upside for feed buyers.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bearish ▼
- KWHEAT: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2023-05-31 | [Canada Know-Risk Market Outlook \| Ag Markets Lower on Weak Demand, Planting Progress, and Recession Concerns](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36053-canada-know-risk-market-outlook-ag-markets-lower-on-weak-demand-planting.md) | -3.2% | +9.0% |
| WHEAT | 2016-06-28 | [EU wheat prices weaken as firmer euro dents export outlook](https://feedsoft.ai/events/11730-eu-wheat-prices-weaken-as-firmer-euro-dents-export-outlook.md) | -2.7% | -3.5% |
| WHEAT | 2021-05-19 | [US MIDDAY: Soyabean, wheat and corn plunge - Markets - Business Recorder](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12365-us-midday-soyabean-wheat-and-corn-plunge-markets-business-recorder.md) | -2.8% | +2.2% |
| WHEAT | 2024-11-14 | [Rising dollar and rain forecasts weigh on US wheat](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27444-rising-dollar-and-rain-forecasts-weigh-on-us-wheat.md) | -0.5% | +0.2% |
| WHEAT | 2024-11-26 | [Paris wheat drops - Markets - Business Recorder](https://feedsoft.ai/events/11781-paris-wheat-drops-markets-business-recorder.md) | -0.1% | +2.1% |
| KWHEAT | 2017-03-22 | [Increased competition for U.S. wheat producers.](https://feedsoft.ai/events/72049-increased-competition-for-u-s-wheat-producers.md) | -3.3% | -4.9% |
| KWHEAT | 2024-11-14 | [Rising dollar and rain forecasts weigh on US wheat](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27444-rising-dollar-and-rain-forecasts-weigh-on-us-wheat.md) | +3.9% | +1.0% |
| KWHEAT | 2022-10-29 | [Corn, wheat sag on firm dollar, concerns over US export demand - Markets - Business Recorder](https://feedsoft.ai/events/4932-corn-wheat-sag-on-firm-dollar-concerns-over-us-export-demand-markets-business.md) | +3.1% | -2.2% |

## Sources

- bakingbusiness.com: https://www.bakingbusiness.com/articles/65910-outlook-for-us-wheat-fewer-acres-lower-production

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.