# European Commission estimates significantly lower wheat harvest - Grains & Commodities Analysis | Boerenbusiness. Nl

> The European Commission estimates the 2026 EU soft wheat harvest at 125.9 million tonnes, 6.2% below 2025 and 0.6% below the five-year average. Matif May wheat closed up on the day at €205.25/t and CBoT wheat rose to $6.05/bu.

- Date: 2026-03-27 · published 2026-03-27T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region Europe · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/20109-european-commission-estimates-significantly-lower-wheat-harvest-grains-and
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Barley](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BARLEY.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md)

## Why it matters

A smaller EU wheat crop reduces export supply from a major exporter, supporting wheat prices and potentially boosting demand for feed substitutes like corn and barley.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: neutral
- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- BARLEY: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2016-11-01 | [EU Commission: EU grain harvest small - supply close](https://feedsoft.ai/events/73795-eu-commission-eu-grain-harvest-small-supply-close.md) | +0.2% | -3.5% |
| WHEAT | 2020-10-14 | [French harvest forecasts revised downwards - Inside Grains & Raw Material \| Boerenbusiness. Nl](https://feedsoft.ai/events/50575-french-harvest-forecasts-revised-downwards-inside-grains-and-raw-material.md) | +2.1% | +0.2% |
| WHEAT | 2024-06-13 | [Strategie Grains cuts EU wheat crop forecast as harvesting starts - AgCanada](https://feedsoft.ai/events/29698-strategie-grains-cuts-eu-wheat-crop-forecast-as-harvesting-starts-agcanada.md) | -2.1% | -3.6% |
| WHEAT | 2024-08-28 | [A summary: 2024 European wheat harvest
 - GoodMills Group](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28710-a-summary-2024-european-wheat-harvest-goodmills-group.md) | +4.4% | +15.2% |
| WHEAT | 2023-06-21 | [Wheat output 10% lower than govt estimate amid sharp price rise: Trade body \| India News - Business Standard](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35454-wheat-output-10-lower-than-govt-estimate-amid-sharp-price-rise-trade-body-india.md) | +9.4% | +0.6% |
| CORN | 2023-02-09 | [Strategie Grains enhances EU wheat crop forecast again - Markets - Business Recorder](https://feedsoft.ai/events/37268-strategie-grains-enhances-eu-wheat-crop-forecast-again-markets-business-recorder.md) | -1.3% | -5.2% |
| CORN | 2016-11-17 | [Strategy of grains estimates EU acreage for wheat at](https://feedsoft.ai/events/73796-strategy-of-grains-estimates-eu-acreage-for-wheat-at.md) | +3.0% | +4.6% |
| CORN | 2019-12-11 | [Market not impressed by cut-and-paste work - Inside Grains & Raw Material \| Boerenbusiness. Nl](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55516-market-not-impressed-by-cut-and-paste-work-inside-grains-and-raw-material.md) | +5.1% | +4.1% |

## Sources

- en.boerenbusiness.nl: https://en.boerenbusiness.nl/granen-grondstof/artikel/10915710/europese-commissie-raamt-fors-lagere-tarweoogst

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.