# El Niño/La Niña Update (February 2026) - World | ReliefWeb

> The WMO's February 2026 ENSO update says the weak La Niña is fading into neutral conditions, with neutral expected until July. Model forecasts show El Niño chances rising, with about a 40% probability by May to July.

- Date: 2026-03-03 · published 2026-03-03T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/20089-el-nino-la-nina-update-february-2026-world-reliefweb
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md), [Rough Rice](https://feedsoft.ai/c/RICE.md)

## Why it matters

The chance of El Niño developing later in 2026 raises the risk of drought in key producing regions such as Australia, India and Southeast Asia. Early forecast uncertainty means the price effect is currently small.

## Read by commodity

- RICE: neutral
- WHEAT: neutral
- PALMOIL: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2022-03-01 | [El Niño / La Niña Update - February 2022](https://feedsoft.ai/events/42192-el-nino-la-nina-update-february-2022.md) | +10.5% | +22.7% |
| WHEAT | 2017-07-07 | [WMO El Niño/La Niña Update, 7 July 2017 - World \| ReliefWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/69875-wmo-el-nino-la-nina-update-7-july-2017-world-reliefweb.md) | -1.7% | +0.9% |
| WHEAT | 2019-11-29 | [WMO issues El Niño/La Niña update - World \| ReliefWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55980-wmo-issues-el-nino-la-nina-update-world-reliefweb.md) | -0.1% | -1.3% |
| WHEAT | 2020-05-28 | [El Niño / La Niña Update (May 2020)](https://feedsoft.ai/events/53044-el-nino-la-nina-update-may-2020.md) | -0.7% | -0.2% |
| WHEAT | 2019-08-20 | [El Niño/La Niña Update (August 2019)](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57495-el-nino-la-nina-update-august-2019.md) | +2.0% | +0.3% |
| PALMOIL | 2017-07-07 | [WMO El Niño/La Niña Update, 7 July 2017 - World \| ReliefWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/69875-wmo-el-nino-la-nina-update-7-july-2017-world-reliefweb.md) | +0.2% | +2.4% |
| PALMOIL | 2019-11-29 | [WMO issues El Niño/La Niña update - World \| ReliefWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55980-wmo-issues-el-nino-la-nina-update-world-reliefweb.md) | +6.9% | +10.9% |
| PALMOIL | 2018-09-27 | [Seasonal Outlook: Haze Update – El Niño Ready Nations](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62945-seasonal-outlook-haze-update-el-nino-ready-nations.md) | -0.8% | -0.8% |

## Sources

- reliefweb.int: https://reliefweb.int/report/world/el-ninola-nina-update-february-2026

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.