# El Niño Watch: 62% Chance of Arrival This Summer, But Drew Lerner Warns Extreme Forecasts May Be Overblown - AgWeb

> The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center has issued an El Niño watch, forecasting a 62% chance of El Niño forming between June and August and persisting through 2026. It puts the chance of a strong event in October to December at about one in three.

- Date: 2026-03-13 · published 2026-03-13T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/20087-el-nino-watch-62-chance-of-arrival-this-summer-but-drew-lerner-warns-extreme
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

An El Niño watch signals rising risk of weather disruption to US planting and to South Asian and Australian crops later in the year. This supports a modest weather premium in corn and soybeans, though confidence in the strength of the event is low.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bullish ▲
- CORN: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2026-07-20 | [El Niño casts a shadow over agri markets, but global food fears may be overblown \| articles \| ING THINK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18242-el-nino-casts-a-shadow-over-agri-markets-but-global-food-fears-may-be-overblown.md) | +3.9% | +1.2% |
| CORN | 2023-05-24 | [The U.S. Now Has a Nearly 90% Chance of Seeing El Niño This Summer - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13279-the-u-s-now-has-a-nearly-90-chance-of-seeing-el-nino-this-summer-agweb.md) | -3.4% | -0.1% |
| CORN | 2026-01-21 | [Timing of La Niña Exit, El Niño Entrance is Unclear, Raising Questions About Dryness for Spring and Summer - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20954-timing-of-la-nina-exit-el-nino-entrance-is-unclear-raising-questions-about.md) | +0.8% | +0.6% |
| CORN | 2024-10-10 | [US forecaster sees 60% chance of La Niña weather in September-November](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27778-us-forecaster-sees-60-chance-of-la-nina-weather-in-september-november.md) | -2.6% | +0.4% |
| CORN | 2025-05-20 | [It's Not Just Drought Meteorologists Are Concerned About This Summer, It's Also Heat - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13089-it-s-not-just-drought-meteorologists-are-concerned-about-this-summer-it-s-also.md) | +1.6% | -2.4% |
| SOY | 2023-05-24 | [The U.S. Now Has a Nearly 90% Chance of Seeing El Niño This Summer - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13279-the-u-s-now-has-a-nearly-90-chance-of-seeing-el-nino-this-summer-agweb.md) | -1.7% | +13.5% |
| SOY | 2026-01-21 | [Timing of La Niña Exit, El Niño Entrance is Unclear, Raising Questions About Dryness for Spring and Summer - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20954-timing-of-la-nina-exit-el-nino-entrance-is-unclear-raising-questions-about.md) | +1.4% | +7.6% |
| SOY | 2024-10-10 | [US forecaster sees 60% chance of La Niña weather in September-November](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27778-us-forecaster-sees-60-chance-of-la-nina-weather-in-september-november.md) | -3.9% | -2.5% |

## Sources

- agweb.com: https://www.agweb.com/news/crops/crop-production/el-nino-watch-62-chance-arrival-summer-drew-lerner-warns-extreme-forec

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.