# Return of El Niño expected, but impacts not likely until fall | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.

> NOAA projects El Niño could develop as early as late summer or fall, with a one-in-three chance of a strong event by late fall. Forecasters expect a hot, dry summer in the western and central US and record-low western snowpack.

- Date: 2026-03-25 · published 2026-03-25T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/20086-return-of-el-nino-expected-but-impacts-not-likely-until-fall-agri-pulse
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Sorghum](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SORGHUM.md)

## Why it matters

A hot summer in the US Plains and West raises drought risk for corn and soybeans during key growing months. Impacts on crops are more likely at harvest or later, so price effects are mainly forward-looking.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bullish ▲
- CORN: bullish ▲
- SORGHUM: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2023-03-08 | [USDA slashes Argentina corn, soybean production forecasts \| Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36819-usda-slashes-argentina-corn-soybean-production-forecasts-agri-pulse.md) | -1.6% | -0.6% |
| CORN | 2021-08-18 | [La Niña’s Likely Return Could Impact Brazil, US Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45487-la-nina-s-likely-return-could-impact-brazil-us-corn.md) | -1.4% | -10.1% |
| CORN | 2018-04-25 | [Cold Midwest weather could cap crop yields \| 2018-04-24 \| Agri-Pulse \| Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.](https://feedsoft.ai/events/65365-cold-midwest-weather-could-cap-crop-yields-2018-04-24-agri-pulse-agri-pulse.md) | +2.4% | +5.0% |
| CORN | 2023-11-03 | [El Niño: Anticipatory Action and Response Plan, October 2023 - March 2024 - Mitigating the expected impacts of El Niño-induced climate extremes on agriculture and food security - World \| ReliefWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33097-el-nino-anticipatory-action-and-response-plan-october-2023-march-2024.md) | +1.0% | -1.0% |
| CORN | 2023-08-07 | [El Niño: Anticipatory Action and Response Plan, August-December 2023 - Mitigating the expected impacts of El Niño-induced climate extremes on agriculture and food security - World \| ReliefWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34472-el-nino-anticipatory-action-and-response-plan-august-december-2023-mitigating.md) | -0.9% | -2.9% |
| SOY | 2023-03-08 | [USDA slashes Argentina corn, soybean production forecasts \| Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36819-usda-slashes-argentina-corn-soybean-production-forecasts-agri-pulse.md) | -1.7% | -0.5% |
| SOY | 2021-01-06 | [Cargill exec: Soybean prices rising amid ‘rationing’ \| 2021-01-06  \| Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.](https://feedsoft.ai/events/11545-cargill-exec-soybean-prices-rising-amid-rationing-2021-01-06-agri-pulse.md) | +5.3% | +1.6% |
| SOY | 2018-04-25 | [Cold Midwest weather could cap crop yields \| 2018-04-24 \| Agri-Pulse \| Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.](https://feedsoft.ai/events/65365-cold-midwest-weather-could-cap-crop-yields-2018-04-24-agri-pulse-agri-pulse.md) | +2.0% | +0.8% |

## Sources

- agri-pulse.com: https://www.agri-pulse.com/articles/24413-return-of-el-nino-expected-but-impacts-not-likely-until-fall

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.