# Semi-Annual Global Fertilizer Outlook - Rabobank

> Rabobank's semi-annual outlook says global fertiliser markets ended Q1 2026 under severe strain after the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Nitrogen and phosphate prices have risen faster than crop prices, and affordability is negative through 2026.

- Date: 2026-04-07 · published 2026-04-07T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/20027-semi-annual-global-fertilizer-outlook-rabobank
- Commodities: [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md), [DAP](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DAP.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Higher nitrogen and phosphate costs raise the risk of reduced application and lower crop output, which could tighten feed grain supply and support corn and other coarse grain prices over time.

## Read by commodity

- DAP: bullish ▲
- CORN: bullish ▲
- UREA: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| UREA | 2020-12-10 | [Rabobank provides semi-annual global fertilizer outlook \| World Fertilizer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/49586-rabobank-provides-semi-annual-global-fertilizer-outlook-world-fertilizer.md) | -0.4% | +13.4% |
| UREA | 2025-04-28 | [RaboResearch’s 2025 Global Fertilizer Outlook: Prices Up, Affordability Down](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25031-raboresearch-s-2025-global-fertilizer-outlook-prices-up-affordability-down.md) | +13.4% | +10.6% |
| UREA | 2022-10-08 | [Global Fertilizer Price Updates: September’ 2022 -](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39446-global-fertilizer-price-updates-september-2022.md) | -1.2% | -13.9% |
| UREA | 2021-12-12 | [Global Fertilizer Price Update: November’21 -](https://feedsoft.ai/events/43943-global-fertilizer-price-update-november-21.md) | 0.0% | -12.1% |
| UREA | 2022-01-09 | [Global Fertilizer Price Update: December’21 -](https://feedsoft.ai/events/43442-global-fertilizer-price-update-december-21.md) | -8.8% | -17.6% |
| DAP | 2020-12-10 | [Rabobank provides semi-annual global fertilizer outlook \| World Fertilizer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/49586-rabobank-provides-semi-annual-global-fertilizer-outlook-world-fertilizer.md) | 0.0% | +2.8% |
| DAP | 2025-04-28 | [RaboResearch’s 2025 Global Fertilizer Outlook: Prices Up, Affordability Down](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25031-raboresearch-s-2025-global-fertilizer-outlook-prices-up-affordability-down.md) | 0.0% | +3.5% |
| DAP | 2026-08-26 | [Fertilizer Outlook Mixed Heading ... \| Syngenta CA](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17862-fertilizer-outlook-mixed-heading-syngenta-ca.md) | -0.6% | +0.9% |

## Sources

- rabobank.com: https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/q011332992-semiannual-fertilizer-outlook-tensions-in-the-middle-east-trigger-disruptions-in-the-fertilizer-market

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.