# Global fertiliser market facing prolonged period of strain from Middle East disruption – industry report

> Rabobank's Semi-annual Fertiliser Outlook says the global fertiliser market faces a prolonged period of tight supply, weak affordability and high price risk. The report links the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz to a supply shock that removed substantial fertiliser volumes from trade. It expects the affordability index to stay negative through 2026 with only limited recovery in the second half.

- Date: 2026-04-21 · published 2026-04-21T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: geopolitics · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/20020-global-fertiliser-market-facing-prolonged-period-of-strain-from-middle-east
- Commodities: [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md), [DAP](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DAP.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md)

## Why it matters

Higher nitrogen and phosphate costs raise feed-grain and oilseed production costs and may push farmers to cut application and planting, tightening future crop supply. Prices for fertiliser inputs are likely to stay elevated for longer than expected.

## Read by commodity

- DAP: bullish ▲
- CORN: bullish ▲
- UREA: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| UREA | 2026-03-03 | [Fertilizer Markets Surge Following Escalation in the Middle East - RFD](https://feedsoft.ai/events/4435-fertilizer-markets-surge-following-escalation-in-the-middle-east-rfd.md) | +10.0% | +19.1% |
| UREA | 2026-06-08 | [TIQ - Insights Hub - Global Fertiliser Disruptions](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18708-tiq-insights-hub-global-fertiliser-disruptions.md) | -5.1% | -17.5% |
| UREA | 2026-07-14 | [Middle East crisis: fertiliser trade "severely disrupted", WTO says](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18267-middle-east-crisis-fertiliser-trade-severely-disrupted-wto-says.md) | +1.6% | +4.2% |
| UREA | 2022-08-05 | [Global Fertilizer Constraints - Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39979-global-fertilizer-constraints-total-farm-marketing-by-stewart-peterson.md) | -4.5% | +13.6% |
| UREA | 2024-02-29 | [Middle East shipping disruptions could ignite fertilizer prices - Brownfield Ag News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31978-middle-east-shipping-disruptions-could-ignite-fertilizer-prices-brownfield-ag.md) | +7.6% | +8.6% |
| DAP | 2026-10-05 | [Middle East bottlenecks reshape global fertiliser market - Mining.com.au](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17037-middle-east-bottlenecks-reshape-global-fertiliser-market-mining-com-au.md) | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| DAP | 2026-03-03 | [Fertilizer Markets Surge Following Escalation in the Middle East - RFD](https://feedsoft.ai/events/4435-fertilizer-markets-surge-following-escalation-in-the-middle-east-rfd.md) | +1.2% | +7.3% |
| DAP | 2026-06-08 | [TIQ - Insights Hub - Global Fertiliser Disruptions](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18708-tiq-insights-hub-global-fertiliser-disruptions.md) | 0.0% | -4.2% |

## Sources

- rabobank.com.au: https://www.rabobank.com.au/news/media-releases/2026/global-fertiliser-market-facing-prolonged-period-of-strain-from-

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.