# Euro-Dollar Driven by War, Not Rates: UniCredit

> UniCredit said on April 28 that EUR/USD is driven more by the Middle East conflict than by ECB policy expectations. The bank expects the ECB to keep rates steady but to keep hike expectations alive, and sees two hikes in 2026. The pair has repeatedly moved above and below 1.17.

- Date: 2026-04-28 · published 2026-04-28T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region Europe · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/19947-euro-dollar-driven-by-war-not-rates-unicredit
- Commodities: [Euro (USD per EUR)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/EURUSD.md), [Crude Oil (WTI)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WTI.md)

## Why it matters

If geopolitical risk drives the dollar and oil, feed commodity prices will respond more to energy and war headlines than to central bank moves. Currency-driven changes in feed import costs should track oil-related risk sentiment.

## Read by commodity

- WTI: bullish ▲
- EURUSD: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| EURUSD | 2022-08-29 | [Dollar eases off of 20-year high as euro boosted by rates view \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/40214-dollar-eases-off-of-20-year-high-as-euro-boosted-by-rates-view-reuters.md) | +0.3% | -3.8% |
| EURUSD | 2020-04-30 | [Pound-Dollar Protected By Dovish FED, Focus For Sterling-Euro Rate Outlook On ECB And UK Lockdown \| Exchange Rates UK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/53871-pound-dollar-protected-by-dovish-fed-focus-for-sterling-euro-rate-outlook-on.md) | -0.4% | +2.0% |
| EURUSD | 2026-02-04 | [ECB keeps rates unchanged, signal comfort with dollar weakness \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20803-ecb-keeps-rates-unchanged-signal-comfort-with-dollar-weakness-reuters.md) | +0.7% | -1.5% |
| EURUSD | 2021-04-22 | [Euro and U.S. dollar waffle as markets weigh ECB policy talk](https://feedsoft.ai/events/47818-euro-and-u-s-dollar-waffle-as-markets-weigh-ecb-policy-talk.md) | +0.5% | +1.5% |
| EURUSD | 2026-02-05 | [ECB holds rates but it's not a 'non-event,' economists say. Here's why](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20807-ecb-holds-rates-but-it-s-not-a-non-event-economists-say-here-s-why.md) | +0.7% | -1.8% |
| WTI | 2021-02-01 | [U.S. dollar reaches six-week high on weaker euro, Swiss franc and yen](https://feedsoft.ai/events/48877-u-s-dollar-reaches-six-week-high-on-weaker-euro-swiss-franc-and-yen.md) | +8.9% | +16.1% |
| WTI | 2017-05-22 | [Commodities Relief Rally As U.S. Dollar Breaks Down - InvestingHaven](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10222-commodities-relief-rally-as-u-s-dollar-breaks-down-investinghaven.md) | -1.3% | -12.1% |
| WTI | 2024-01-29 | [Canadian Dollar hesitates with Canada GDP, US Fed rate call in the pipe](https://feedsoft.ai/events/32335-canadian-dollar-hesitates-with-canada-gdp-us-fed-rate-call-in-the-pipe.md) | -7.3% | -0.1% |

## Sources

- poundsterlinglive.com: https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/eurusd/23239-euro-dollar-driven-by-war-not-rates-unicredit

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.