# Goldman Cuts USD/BRL Outlook as Real Gains on Trade, Carry and Risk Appetite

> Goldman Sachs cut its USD/BRL forecasts to 4.90 in three months, 5.00 in six months and 5.00 in twelve months, down from 5.20, 5.30 and 5.30. The bank attributes the real's strength to improved terms of trade, a recovery in risky assets and high carry, and warns that a reversal in risk appetite or the October presidential election could bring volatility.

- Date: 2026-04-25 · published 2026-04-25T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region Brazil · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/19931-goldman-cuts-usd-brl-outlook-as-real-gains-on-trade-carry-and-risk-appetite
- Commodities: [Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDBRL.md)

## Why it matters

A forecast of a firmer real reduces the cost of imported inputs for Brazil-based feed and meat producers and can encourage exporters to sell soybeans, corn and meal more readily.

## Read by commodity

- USDBRL: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDBRL | 2020-06-29 | [Brazilian Real Strengthens on EM Risk Appetite, Falling COVID-19 Cases](https://feedsoft.ai/events/52813-brazilian-real-strengthens-on-em-risk-appetite-falling-covid-19-cases.md) | -2.8% | -5.2% |
| USDBRL | 2025-04-01 | [Brazil regains luster as recession risk, trade war spur global reallocation](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6030-brazil-regains-luster-as-recession-risk-trade-war-spur-global-reallocation.md) | +3.2% | -1.1% |
| USDBRL | 2020-12-04 | [LATAM FX Talking: FX gains as risk appetite solidifies \| reports \| ING THINK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/49854-latam-fx-talking-fx-gains-as-risk-appetite-solidifies-reports-ing-think.md) | -1.1% | +3.5% |
| USDBRL | 2026-03-26 | [Brazil real expected to strengthen as commodities and carry support currency outlook - BofA By Investing.com](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20383-brazil-real-expected-to-strengthen-as-commodities-and-carry-support-currency.md) | -1.3% | -4.8% |
| USDBRL | 2026-06-16 | [Goldman Sachs stays bullish on Brazil’s real despite election risks](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10643-goldman-sachs-stays-bullish-on-brazil-s-real-despite-election-risks.md) | +2.5% | +0.5% |

## Sources

- tradevae.com: https://www.tradevae.com/news/currencies/goldman-cuts-usdbrl-outlook-as-real-gains-on-trade-carry-and-risk-appetite/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.