# Indonesia 2026 crude palm oil output to fall due to El Nino, high fertiliser prices, association says | The Star

> GAPKI said Indonesia's 2026 crude palm oil output may fall by up to 2 million tonnes from 2025 due to El Nino dry weather and high fertiliser prices. Fertiliser prices have risen about 30% since the Middle East war began, and smallholders may cut application.

- Date: 2026-04-29 · published 2026-04-29T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Indonesia · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/19818-indonesia-2026-crude-palm-oil-output-to-fall-due-to-el-nino-high-fertiliser
- Commodities: [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md), [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md), [Soybean Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBO.md)

## Why it matters

A possible multi-million-tonne Indonesian output decline would tighten global vegetable oil supply and support palm and related oil prices.

## Read by commodity

- SBO: bullish ▲
- UREA: bullish ▲
- PALMOIL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| PALMOIL | 2023-09-29 | [Indonesian Palm Oil Association sees palm oil prices rising in 2024 as El Nino crimps domestic output](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34219-indonesian-palm-oil-association-sees-palm-oil-prices-rising-in-2024-as-el-nino.md) | -4.5% | -3.5% |
| PALMOIL | 2023-11-23 | [El Nino poses risk to 2024 palm oil output in Indonesia, Malaysia - The HinduBusinessLine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33277-el-nino-poses-risk-to-2024-palm-oil-output-in-indonesia-malaysia-the.md) | -0.7% | -3.3% |
| PALMOIL | 2026-08-28 | [El Niño to crimp Indonesian palm oil output, producer group says](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18012-el-nino-to-crimp-indonesian-palm-oil-output-producer-group-says.md) | +4.5% | +1.3% |
| PALMOIL | 2026-09-02 | [El Niño to crimp Indonesian palm oil output, producer group says - MPOC](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17547-el-nino-to-crimp-indonesian-palm-oil-output-producer-group-says-mpoc.md) | -0.5% | -4.3% |
| PALMOIL | 2026-10-22 | [Palm oil prices to stay high next year on Southeast Asia drought](https://feedsoft.ai/events/523-palm-oil-prices-to-stay-high-next-year-on-southeast-asia-drought.md) | -0.4% | — |
| UREA | 2026-05-31 | [Wheat Futures Prices Have Surged 30% This Year As Iran War Hit Fertilizer Supplies and U.S. Drought Sent Output To A 54-Year Low](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19292-wheat-futures-prices-have-surged-30-this-year-as-iran-war-hit-fertilizer.md) | -21.5% | -30.2% |
| UREA | 2026-04-02 | [Raising energy and fertilizer prices and upcoming El Niño main concerns to farming  - Joint Research Centre](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19632-raising-energy-and-fertilizer-prices-and-upcoming-el-nino-main-concerns-to.md) | +1.6% | -1.2% |
| UREA | 2026-01-21 | [Natural Gas Prices Soar as Winter Storm Is Set to Drop Snow, Ice Across Massive Swath of the US - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/4409-natural-gas-prices-soar-as-winter-storm-is-set-to-drop-snow-ice-across-massive.md) | +1.6% | +13.7% |

## Sources

- mpoc.org.my: https://www.mpoc.org.my/indonesia-2026-crude-palm-oil-output-to-fall-due-to-el-nino-high-fertiliser-prices-association-says/
- thestar.com.my: https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2026/04/29/indonesia-2026-crude-palm-oil-output-to-fall-due-to-el-nino-high-fertiliser-prices-association-says

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.