# Hard Red Winter Wheat Crop Rivals 2023 Disaster After Drought and Freeze Damage

> USDA rates 30% of the U.S. hard red winter wheat crop good to excellent and 33% poor to very poor, with 68% of the crop in drought. Analysts say Kansas could match 2023's drought disaster, and a recent freeze stretching from South Dakota to the Texas Panhandle likely damaged the crop further.

- Date: 2026-05-01 · published 2026-05-01T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region US · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/19782-hard-red-winter-wheat-crop-rivals-2023-disaster-after-drought-and-freeze-damage
- Commodities: [Wheat (HRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/KWHEAT.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

A crop rivaling 2023's drought losses would sharply cut U.S. HRW supply and lift wheat prices. Freeze damage not yet reflected in ratings adds downside risk to the yield outlook.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- KWHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| KWHEAT | 2022-04-13 | [U.S. Hard Red Winter Wheat in Drought Adds Supply Concerns](https://feedsoft.ai/events/41905-u-s-hard-red-winter-wheat-in-drought-adds-supply-concerns.md) | +0.1% | +2.1% |
| KWHEAT | 2025-06-23 | [How Much Weather-Related Damage Has Affected US Winter Wheat?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24261-how-much-weather-related-damage-has-affected-us-winter-wheat.md) | -8.4% | -6.7% |
| KWHEAT | 2017-12-16 | [Drought leaves U.S. Plains wheat vulnerable to freeze damage](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10328-drought-leaves-u-s-plains-wheat-vulnerable-to-freeze-damage.md) | +1.1% | +2.3% |
| KWHEAT | 2018-03-13 | [Drought threat intensifies for U.S. Plains winter wheat crop](https://feedsoft.ai/events/66052-drought-threat-intensifies-for-u-s-plains-winter-wheat-crop.md) | -7.6% | +2.5% |
| KWHEAT | 2026-04-29 | [U.S. hard red winter wheat crop finds itself in trouble \| The Western Producer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19780-u-s-hard-red-winter-wheat-crop-finds-itself-in-trouble-the-western-producer.md) | -2.8% | -3.9% |
| WHEAT | 2022-04-13 | [U.S. Hard Red Winter Wheat in Drought Adds Supply Concerns](https://feedsoft.ai/events/41905-u-s-hard-red-winter-wheat-in-drought-adds-supply-concerns.md) | -0.5% | +6.1% |
| WHEAT | 2017-12-16 | [Drought leaves U.S. Plains wheat vulnerable to freeze damage](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10328-drought-leaves-u-s-plains-wheat-vulnerable-to-freeze-damage.md) | +0.3% | +0.8% |
| WHEAT | 2018-03-13 | [Drought threat intensifies for U.S. Plains winter wheat crop](https://feedsoft.ai/events/66052-drought-threat-intensifies-for-u-s-plains-winter-wheat-crop.md) | -1.6% | +0.5% |

## Sources

- agweb.com: https://www.agweb.com/news/hard-red-winter-wheat-crop-rivals-2023-disaster-after-drought-and-freeze-damage

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.