# U.S. hard red winter wheat crop finds itself in trouble | The Western Producer

> Drought has expanded through the southern U.S. Plains, with the Texas Panhandle, western Oklahoma and central and western Kansas receiving less than 20% of normal precipitation over 60 days. Kansas winter wheat ratings fell to 24% good to excellent, while Oklahoma and Texas are rated 10% and 14%. Spring wheat futures are hitting new contract highs.

- Date: 2026-04-29 · published 2026-04-29T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region US · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/19780-u-s-hard-red-winter-wheat-crop-finds-itself-in-trouble-the-western-producer
- Commodities: [Wheat (HRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/KWHEAT.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Poor HRW yield potential cuts into U.S. wheat supply during the crop's peak water-use period, which supports wheat prices and raises the cost of wheat-based feed. Buyers should expect firm HRW prices while the drought persists.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- KWHEAT: bullish ▲

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| KWHEAT | 2026-04-27 | 5 | +9.3% | 2.9 | Severe precipitation deficits and very poor Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas ratings confirm HRW supply damage fueling the rally. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| KWHEAT | 2026-05-05 | [Drought, frost provide lift for U.S. hard red wheat price \| The Western Producer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19313-drought-frost-provide-lift-for-u-s-hard-red-wheat-price-the-western-producer.md) | -1.3% | -7.0% |
| KWHEAT | 2017-09-21 | [U.S. winter wheat plantings might be smaller \| The Western Producer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8511-u-s-winter-wheat-plantings-might-be-smaller-the-western-producer.md) | +2.5% | -4.5% |
| KWHEAT | 2022-04-13 | [U.S. Hard Red Winter Wheat in Drought Adds Supply Concerns](https://feedsoft.ai/events/41905-u-s-hard-red-winter-wheat-in-drought-adds-supply-concerns.md) | +0.1% | +2.1% |
| KWHEAT | 2017-07-27 | [Crop futures higher Thurs. on dry weather \| The Western Producer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/70067-crop-futures-higher-thurs-on-dry-weather-the-western-producer.md) | -2.3% | -16.4% |
| KWHEAT | 2022-10-22 | [Rains threaten South American wheat \| The Western Producer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13694-rains-threaten-south-american-wheat-the-western-producer.md) | -2.5% | -1.5% |
| WHEAT | 2026-05-05 | [Drought, frost provide lift for U.S. hard red wheat price \| The Western Producer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19313-drought-frost-provide-lift-for-u-s-hard-red-wheat-price-the-western-producer.md) | +1.8% | -0.2% |
| WHEAT | 2017-09-21 | [U.S. winter wheat plantings might be smaller \| The Western Producer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8511-u-s-winter-wheat-plantings-might-be-smaller-the-western-producer.md) | -6.6% | +3.1% |
| WHEAT | 2023-07-26 | [‘It’s crop insurance territory’ \| The Western Producer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34993-it-s-crop-insurance-territory-the-western-producer.md) | -0.6% | -3.2% |

## Sources

- producer.com: https://www.producer.com/markets/u-s-hard-red-winter-wheat-crop-finds-itself-in-trouble/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.