# Dry conditions, war ruffle U.S. wheat market | Capital Press

> USDA's April 20 crop progress report rated 30% of the US winter wheat crop good to excellent, down from 34% the prior week and 45% two weeks earlier. Analysts say rain is needed soon, and tensions between the US and Iran are also affecting the wheat market. Soft white wheat traded at $6.15 a bushel in Portland.

- Date: 2026-04-22 · published 2026-04-22T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/19772-dry-conditions-war-ruffle-u-s-wheat-market-capital-press
- Commodities: [Wheat (HRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/KWHEAT.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Falling crop ratings in the Southern Plains point to smaller hard red winter wheat output, which supports prices. Analysts note ample carry-in stocks limit the upside unless losses are large.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- KWHEAT: bullish ▲

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| KWHEAT | 2026-04-27 | 5 | +9.3% | 2.9 | Crop ratings dropping to 30% G/E and the need for rain, plus US-Iran tensions, raised supply risk and risk premium. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| KWHEAT | 2018-02-08 | [Dry conditions in the Plains could boost wheat prices \| Capital Press](https://feedsoft.ai/events/66544-dry-conditions-in-the-plains-could-boost-wheat-prices-capital-press.md) | -2.3% | +8.1% |
| KWHEAT | 2018-01-30 | [U.S. grains: Winter wheat jumps as crop conditions drop - Grainews](https://feedsoft.ai/events/67013-u-s-grains-winter-wheat-jumps-as-crop-conditions-drop-grainews.md) | +1.9% | +7.9% |
| KWHEAT | 2018-02-08 | [U.S. Crop Conditions Fall as Drought Conditions Worsen - U.S. Wheat Associates](https://feedsoft.ai/events/66541-u-s-crop-conditions-fall-as-drought-conditions-worsen-u-s-wheat-associates.md) | -2.3% | +8.1% |
| KWHEAT | 2017-05-02 | [Cold damage pushes wheat market up](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7005-cold-damage-pushes-wheat-market-up.md) | -4.5% | -4.3% |
| KWHEAT | 2018-05-31 | [Weather conditions drive up prices for wheat — Latifundist.com](https://feedsoft.ai/events/65073-weather-conditions-drive-up-prices-for-wheat-latifundist-com.md) | -0.2% | -14.9% |
| WHEAT | 2018-02-08 | [Dry conditions in the Plains could boost wheat prices \| Capital Press](https://feedsoft.ai/events/66544-dry-conditions-in-the-plains-could-boost-wheat-prices-capital-press.md) | -0.5% | +1.3% |
| WHEAT | 2022-02-17 | [Dry Conditions Continue Affecting Global Wheat Production](https://feedsoft.ai/events/42757-dry-conditions-continue-affecting-global-wheat-production.md) | +3.9% | +12.4% |
| WHEAT | 2019-05-21 | [Wet US conditions boost corn wheat prices \| Saxo](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5630-wet-us-conditions-boost-corn-wheat-prices-saxo.md) | -13.2% | -6.0% |

## Sources

- capitalpress.com: https://capitalpress.com/2026/04/22/dry-conditions-war-ruffle-u-s-wheat-market/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.