# How El Nino-driven weaker monsoon rains could impact India - The Economic Times

> Reuters reports that India's weather office forecasts a below-average 2026 monsoon, with El Niño expected to weigh on rainfall in the latter half of the June to September season. The article notes that El Niño years have historically brought droughts and export curbs on some grains in India.

- Date: 2026-04-16 · published 2026-04-16T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region India · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/19704-how-el-nino-driven-weaker-monsoon-rains-could-impact-india-the-economic-times
- Commodities: [Soybean Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBO.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md)

## Why it matters

Lower Indian crop output could increase the need for imports of edible oils and other commodities, supporting global vegetable oil prices and tightening grain export availability.

## Read by commodity

- SBO: bullish ▲
- PALMOIL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SBO | 2021-08-12 | [India gets below-average monsoon rains for second straight week](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45522-india-gets-below-average-monsoon-rains-for-second-straight-week.md) | -2.3% | -9.7% |
| SBO | 2021-09-07 | [Agriculture: Monsoon is drawing to a close. Will the Gods show mercy on India's rain deficit](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45023-agriculture-monsoon-is-drawing-to-a-close-will-the-gods-show-mercy-on-india-s.md) | -3.4% | +1.9% |
| SBO | 2021-08-23 | [Crop sowing lags in India on scanty rains, raises concerns over yields \| Economy & Policy News - Business Standard](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45520-crop-sowing-lags-in-india-on-scanty-rains-raises-concerns-over-yields-economy.md) | +2.7% | -2.4% |
| SBO | 2023-11-23 | [El Nino poses risk to 2024 palm oil output in Indonesia, Malaysia - The HinduBusinessLine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33277-el-nino-poses-risk-to-2024-palm-oil-output-in-indonesia-malaysia-the.md) | -1.1% | -5.2% |
| SBO | 2024-05-06 | [Rains in the South concern players; demand for soybean meal increases – Eita Gota](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6449-rains-in-the-south-concern-players-demand-for-soybean-meal-increases-eita-gota.md) | +2.3% | +8.3% |
| PALMOIL | 2026-04-24 | [Explainer: How El Nino could impact the world's weather in 2026/27 \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19629-explainer-how-el-nino-could-impact-the-world-s-weather-in-2026-27-reuters.md) | -0.0% | -1.4% |
| PALMOIL | 2026-08-24 | [India faces weakest monsoon in nearly two decades as El Nino strengthens \| MarketScreener India](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17831-india-faces-weakest-monsoon-in-nearly-two-decades-as-el-nino-strengthens.md) | -0.3% | +2.3% |
| PALMOIL | 2025-08-06 | [When it rains, it soars! Kitchen budgets on fire - The Economic Times](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12119-when-it-rains-it-soars-kitchen-budgets-on-fire-the-economic-times.md) | +1.9% | +4.1% |

## Sources

- economictimes.indiatimes.com: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/agriculture/how-el-nino-driven-weaker-monsoon-rains-could-impact-india/articleshow/130305040.cms

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.