# Below-Normal Monsoon May Hit Farm Output, Demand and Inflation

> Forbes India reports that the IMD forecasts 92 per cent of long period average monsoon rainfall for June to September 2026, the lowest first long-range forecast in at least 26 years. It adds that El Niño could develop in the second half of the season, with a 25 per cent chance of a strong event.

- Date: 2026-04-24 · published 2026-04-24T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region India · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/19700-below-normal-monsoon-may-hit-farm-output-demand-and-inflation
- Commodities: [Soybean Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBO.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md)

## Why it matters

A weak monsoon and possible strong El Niño raise the risk of lower Indian kharif output, especially pulses and oilseeds, which could increase import needs and support global oilseed and edible oil prices.

## Read by commodity

- SBO: bullish ▲
- PALMOIL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SBO | 2021-08-12 | [India gets below-average monsoon rains for second straight week](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45522-india-gets-below-average-monsoon-rains-for-second-straight-week.md) | -2.3% | -9.7% |
| SBO | 2022-12-02 | [Argentine Exchange: Early Soy in Core Farm Belt Hit by Drought, Outlook Dry](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13992-argentine-exchange-early-soy-in-core-farm-belt-hit-by-drought-outlook-dry.md) | -5.8% | -8.4% |
| SBO | 2024-12-13 | [Exclusive: Heavy rains to hit Malaysian palm oil output again in December, says MPOB \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27041-exclusive-heavy-rains-to-hit-malaysian-palm-oil-output-again-in-december-says.md) | -2.5% | +5.7% |
| SBO | 2023-02-16 | [In Argentina's drought-hit fields, billion dollar losses and farmers going under](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13981-in-argentina-s-drought-hit-fields-billion-dollar-losses-and-farmers-going-under.md) | +1.9% | -6.8% |
| SBO | 2026-04-29 | [Indonesia 2026 crude palm oil output to fall due to El Nino, high fertiliser prices, association says \| The Star](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19818-indonesia-2026-crude-palm-oil-output-to-fall-due-to-el-nino-high-fertiliser.md) | +2.6% | -2.9% |
| PALMOIL | 2026-04-13 | [IMD Forecasts Below Normal South West Monsoon Rainfall in 2026, El Niño to Impact India’s Kharif Season](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19635-imd-forecasts-below-normal-south-west-monsoon-rainfall-in-2026-el-nino-to.md) | -1.0% | -0.0% |
| PALMOIL | 2021-08-12 | [India gets below-average monsoon rains for second straight week](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45522-india-gets-below-average-monsoon-rains-for-second-straight-week.md) | -0.9% | +1.3% |
| PALMOIL | 2021-01-19 | [Palm Output Hit by Double Whammy of Floods and Scarce Labor - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/49234-palm-output-hit-by-double-whammy-of-floods-and-scarce-labor-bloomberg.md) | -0.9% | -0.9% |

## Sources

- forbesindia.com: https://www.forbesindia.com/article/news/deep-dive/can-rural-india-weather-a-weak-monsoon/2993450/1

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.