# Australia’s wheat production forecast to drop | World Grain

> The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service projects Australia's 2026/27 wheat production at 29 million tonnes, down from an estimated 36 million in 2025/26. The decline reflects a 4.8% cut in harvested area, mainly from dry conditions in southern Queensland and northern New South Wales, and yields of 2.46 t/ha, below last season's 2.9 t/ha. Wheat exports are also projected to fall.

- Date: 2026-04-29 · published 2026-04-29T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region Australia · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/19682-australia-s-wheat-production-forecast-to-drop-world-grain
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

A roughly 20% drop in Australian output removes a major exporter's supply from world wheat markets and supports prices, especially as El Niño adds downside risk to the crop.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2025-04-29 | [Australia’s grain crops forecast upbeat \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25088-australia-s-grain-crops-forecast-upbeat-world-grain.md) | +2.1% | -2.8% |
| WHEAT | 2026-04-23 | [EU overall grains production forecast to decline \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19660-eu-overall-grains-production-forecast-to-decline-world-grain.md) | +1.4% | +2.5% |
| WHEAT | 2018-02-13 | [Australian wheat production drops 38% \| World-grain.com \| February 13, 2018 15:18 \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/66464-australian-wheat-production-drops-38-world-grain-com-february-13-2018-15-18.md) | -0.7% | +1.7% |
| WHEAT | 2026-06-05 | [Australia's winter crop production forecast to be down 21 per cent](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18772-australia-s-winter-crop-production-forecast-to-be-down-21-per-cent.md) | -0.4% | +1.5% |
| WHEAT | 2021-05-03 | [Australian grain production falls to average levels  \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/47057-australian-grain-production-falls-to-average-levels-world-grain.md) | -5.4% | -5.4% |

## Sources

- world-grain.com: https://www.world-grain.com/articles/22694-australias-wheat-production-forecast-to-drop

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.