# IMD Forecasts Below Normal South West Monsoon Rainfall in 2026, El Niño to Impact India’s Kharif Season

> India's IMD forecasts below-normal South West Monsoon rainfall for 2026, at about 92% of the long-period average, with a 35% chance of deficient rain. The forecast is attributed to expected El Nino conditions in the second half of the season.

- Date: 2026-04-13 · published 2026-04-13T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region India · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/19635-imd-forecasts-below-normal-south-west-monsoon-rainfall-in-2026-el-nino-to
- Commodities: [Rough Rice](https://feedsoft.ai/c/RICE.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md)

## Why it matters

A weak monsoon threatens India's kharif crops such as rice, pulses and oilseeds, which could lift Indian import demand and support global rice and vegetable oil prices.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bullish ▲
- RICE: bullish ▲
- PALMOIL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| RICE | 2023-10-09 | [Explained: How is ‘below normal’ monsoon 2023 impacting India’s economy](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33579-explained-how-is-below-normal-monsoon-2023-impacting-india-s-economy.md) | -0.6% | +1.1% |
| RICE | 2026-06-02 | [India cuts foodgrains output target amid below normal monsoon forecast - The HinduBusinessLine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18741-india-cuts-foodgrains-output-target-amid-below-normal-monsoon-forecast-the.md) | -0.2% | +2.6% |
| RICE | 2018-08-01 | [India's monsoon rain forecast cut, farm output seen at risk \| The Star](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63497-india-s-monsoon-rain-forecast-cut-farm-output-seen-at-risk-the-star.md) | -8.4% | -11.1% |
| RICE | 2023-09-30 | [India's monsoon rains hit five-year low due to El Nino](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34001-india-s-monsoon-rains-hit-five-year-low-due-to-el-nino.md) | +0.8% | +1.9% |
| RICE | 2023-07-07 | [Malaysia forecasts peak of El Niño to hit in early 2024](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34966-malaysia-forecasts-peak-of-el-nino-to-hit-in-early-2024.md) | +1.4% | -13.7% |
| PALMOIL | 2021-08-12 | [India gets below-average monsoon rains for second straight week](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45522-india-gets-below-average-monsoon-rains-for-second-straight-week.md) | -0.9% | +1.3% |
| PALMOIL | 2023-07-07 | [Malaysia forecasts peak of El Niño to hit in early 2024](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34966-malaysia-forecasts-peak-of-el-nino-to-hit-in-early-2024.md) | -0.1% | +0.4% |
| PALMOIL | 2026-04-16 | [How El Nino-driven weaker monsoon rains could impact India - The Economic Times](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19704-how-el-nino-driven-weaker-monsoon-rains-could-impact-india-the-economic-times.md) | +0.8% | -0.8% |

## Sources

- downtoearth.org.in: https://www.downtoearth.org.in/climate-change/south-west-monsoon-rainfall-to-be-below-normal-or-deficient-in-2026

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.