# Forecast for strong El Niño fans worries about global crops

> Reuters reports forecasts for a strong El Nino in the second half of 2026, with heat and dryness already seen in Australia and India. India expects below-average monsoon rains, and farmers face fertilizer shortages and costly fuel from the Iran war.

- Date: 2026-04-24 · published 2026-04-24T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Asia · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/19633-forecast-for-strong-el-nino-fans-worries-about-global-crops
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Rough Rice](https://feedsoft.ai/c/RICE.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md)

## Why it matters

A strong El Nino combined with fertilizer and fuel shortages threatens Asian and Australian grain and oilseed output, supporting prices for feed grains and oilseeds.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: bullish ▲
- RICE: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- PALMOIL: bullish ▲

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| RICE | 2026-05-04 | 5 | +11.2% | 3.8 | A strong El Niño forecast and fertilizer and fuel constraints raise crop-risk sentiment and could support futures. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2026-04-09 | [Rising Odds of Strong El Niño Point to Global Weather and Crop Impacts - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19631-rising-odds-of-strong-el-nino-point-to-global-weather-and-crop-impacts-bloomberg.md) | +0.9% | +1.5% |
| CORN | 2023-08-30 | [From rice to palm oil, Asian crops output forecast lower as El Nino strengthens](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34470-from-rice-to-palm-oil-asian-crops-output-forecast-lower-as-el-nino-strengthens.md) | -0.0% | -8.2% |
| CORN | 2023-11-01 | [El Niño's Rain Games: A Global Hunger Crisis?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33099-el-nino-s-rain-games-a-global-hunger-crisis.md) | -0.1% | -4.0% |
| CORN | 2023-06-16 | [Strategie Grains cuts EU cereal crop forecasts on weather woes](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35421-strategie-grains-cuts-eu-cereal-crop-forecasts-on-weather-woes.md) | +2.2% | -5.1% |
| CORN | 2018-08-10 | [El Niño forecast may mean better maize prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63455-el-nino-forecast-may-mean-better-maize-prices.md) | -7.5% | -9.1% |
| WHEAT | 2023-09-01 | [Global El Niño forecasts predict a Very Strong event for 2023/24](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34476-global-el-nino-forecasts-predict-a-very-strong-event-for-2023-24.md) | +0.1% | +1.1% |
| WHEAT | 2023-11-01 | [El Niño's Rain Games: A Global Hunger Crisis?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33099-el-nino-s-rain-games-a-global-hunger-crisis.md) | -1.6% | -0.7% |
| WHEAT | 2023-09-26 | [Unfavorable Ocean Combination Including Strong El Nino Dries Out Australia's Wheat Moisture Forecast](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34003-unfavorable-ocean-combination-including-strong-el-nino-dries-out-australia-s.md) | -5.4% | -2.2% |

## Sources

- agcanada.com: https://www.agcanada.com/daily/forecast-for-strong-el-nio-fans-worries-about-global-crops

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.