# Raising energy and fertilizer prices and upcoming El Niño main concerns to farming  - Joint Research Centre

> The EU's JRC March assessment says a generally above-average southern African cereal harvest is projected for 2026, with localized flooding and drought creating variable outlooks. It warns a developing El Nino in late 2026 threatens dry conditions in East Africa and Sudan, while high energy and fertilizer prices weigh on farming.

- Date: 2026-04-02 · published 2026-04-02T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Africa · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/19632-raising-energy-and-fertilizer-prices-and-upcoming-el-nino-main-concerns-to
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md)

## Why it matters

Africa's El Nino risk and high input costs point to tighter cereal supply later in 2026, though the above-average southern harvest limits the price impact.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: bullish ▲
- UREA: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2026-05-06 | [Widespread ASAP forecast warnings on crops for second half of the year due to upcoming El Niño conditions - Joint Research Centre](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19186-widespread-asap-forecast-warnings-on-crops-for-second-half-of-the-year-due-to.md) | +3.3% | +0.0% |
| WHEAT | 2022-11-21 | [Exceptionally warm autumn raises concerns in the south of Europe - Joint Research Centre](https://feedsoft.ai/events/38616-exceptionally-warm-autumn-raises-concerns-in-the-south-of-europe-joint-research.md) | +0.2% | -2.4% |
| WHEAT | 2022-03-21 | [Fair start to spring for most European crops - Joint Research Centre](https://feedsoft.ai/events/42208-fair-start-to-spring-for-most-european-crops-joint-research-centre.md) | +15.8% | +5.9% |
| WHEAT | 2026-09-04 | [El Niño drives crop failure in Central America and East Africa and threatens the next season in Southern Africa, East Africa, Western South America, and Southeast Asia - Joint Research Centre](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17395-el-nino-drives-crop-failure-in-central-america-and-east-africa-and-threatens.md) | +1.4% | +0.4% |
| WHEAT | 2018-07-30 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| July Climate Briefing: Models Continue to Predict El Niño in Coming Months](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63936-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-july-climate.md) | -1.2% | -1.7% |
| CORN | 2026-06-08 | [Agricultural production threatened by combination of El Niño and high input prices - Joint Research Centre](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18726-agricultural-production-threatened-by-combination-of-el-nino-and-high-input.md) | -0.9% | +0.5% |
| CORN | 2026-05-06 | [Widespread ASAP forecast warnings on crops for second half of the year due to upcoming El Niño conditions - Joint Research Centre](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19186-widespread-asap-forecast-warnings-on-crops-for-second-half-of-the-year-due-to.md) | +1.7% | -2.3% |
| CORN | 2026-09-04 | [El Niño drives crop failure in Central America and East Africa and threatens the next season in Southern Africa, East Africa, Western South America, and Southeast Asia - Joint Research Centre](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17395-el-nino-drives-crop-failure-in-central-america-and-east-africa-and-threatens.md) | +0.5% | +1.9% |

## Sources

- joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu: https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/jrc-news-and-updates/raising-energy-and-fertilizer-prices-and-upcoming-el-nino-main-concerns-farming-2026-04-02_en

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.