# Brazil's structural shift to ammonium sulfate is pulling urea prices down; China's return is the year's biggest wildcard - Fertilizer Daily

> Global urea prices fell sharply in May as Brazilian importers shifted to cheaper ammonium sulfate, which Brazil now imports in larger volumes than urea. Urea futures fell to $542.50 per ton on May 21, down 22% from the monthly high. China has been absent from urea exports through May 2026 under export controls, and its return could add significant downward pressure.

- Date: 2026-05-23 · published 2026-05-23T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: trade · region Brazil · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/19579-brazil-s-structural-shift-to-ammonium-sulfate-is-pulling-urea-prices-down-china
- Commodities: [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md)

## Why it matters

Brazil's substitution toward amsul reduces urea demand and pulls prices lower, while China's possible return with large latent export capacity is the main upside-to-downside risk for nitrogen prices.

## Read by commodity

- UREA: bearish ▼

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| UREA | 2026-06-04 | 5 | -21.5% | -4.7 | Brazil's shift to ammonium sulfate cut urea import demand, and a possible return of Chinese exports added downward pressure, with futures down 22% from the monthly high. |
| UREA | 2026-05-31 | 1 | -17.0% | -11.4 | Brazil's shift to ammonium sulfate cut urea import demand and urea futures had already fallen sharply in May, with China's return flagged as further downside pressure. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| UREA | 2026-08-20 | [IFDC: China’s urea exports ease nitrogen prices, but fertilizer markets remain tense - Fertilizer Daily](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17859-ifdc-china-s-urea-exports-ease-nitrogen-prices-but-fertilizer-markets-remain.md) | +1.1% | +17.4% |
| UREA | 2026-08-14 | [Urea price decline accelerates to $386/t as China quota releases and Hormuz talks ease supply fears — Fertilizer Daily](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18190-urea-price-decline-accelerates-to-386-t-as-china-quota-releases-and-hormuz.md) | -0.4% | +14.3% |
| UREA | 2026-10-08 | [Urea Prices Drop in India as China Reshapes Fertilizer Markets Across the Americas](https://feedsoft.ai/events/658-urea-prices-drop-in-india-as-china-reshapes-fertilizer-markets-across-the.md) | +2.3% | +2.6% |
| UREA | 2022-10-28 | [China's return to the international marker drives down pricing of nitrogen, phosphate and potash \| Farm Weekly \| WA](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10122-china-s-return-to-the-international-marker-drives-down-pricing-of-nitrogen.md) | -8.1% | -12.8% |
| UREA | 2024-04-29 | [Urea prices test 2023 lows as China weighs up return to global market](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9420-urea-prices-test-2023-lows-as-china-weighs-up-return-to-global-market.md) | -7.7% | -6.1% |

## Sources

- fertilizerdaily.com: https://www.fertilizerdaily.com/20260523-brazils-structural-shift-to-ammonium-sulfate-is-pulling-urea-prices-down-chinas-return-is-the-years-biggest-wildcard/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.