# IEA warns of global oil deficit as Iran conflict hits output

> The IEA's May oil market report warns that supply will fall 1.78 million barrels per day short of demand in 2026, reversing an earlier surplus. The agency says the market will stay undersupplied through the third quarter even if the conflict ends by early June, with the second-quarter deficit reaching about six million barrels per day.

- Date: 2026-05-13 · published 2026-05-13T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/19448-iea-warns-of-global-oil-deficit-as-iran-conflict-hits-output
- Commodities: [Crude Oil (Brent)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BRENT.md), [Crude Oil (WTI)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WTI.md)

## Why it matters

A persistent deficit means crude and fuel costs are likely to stay high into the summer, which raises production, transport and fertilizer costs for feed buyers.

## Read by commodity

- WTI: bullish ▲
- BRENT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| BRENT | 2026-09-09 | [US EIA hikes oil price forecasts as Iran war drains global stockpile By Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17665-us-eia-hikes-oil-price-forecasts-as-iran-war-drains-global-stockpile-by-reuters.md) | +17.0% | +10.2% |
| BRENT | 2017-09-12 | [Oil edges up as OPEC output falls, offsets hurricane concerns](https://feedsoft.ai/events/69135-oil-edges-up-as-opec-output-falls-offsets-hurricane-concerns.md) | +2.7% | +2.8% |
| BRENT | 2018-01-19 | [IEA Sees Oil Markets Tightening as PDVSA Output](https://feedsoft.ai/events/66904-iea-sees-oil-markets-tightening-as-pdvsa-output.md) | +2.0% | -8.4% |
| BRENT | 2018-03-09 | [Iran war shock to flip market to deficit in 2026: analysts](https://feedsoft.ai/events/66177-iran-war-shock-to-flip-market-to-deficit-in-2026-analysts.md) | +1.0% | +4.8% |
| BRENT | 2019-01-17 | [Oil up on OPEC output cuts, hopes of easing U.S.-China trade tensions - Global Energy Network](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61244-oil-up-on-opec-output-cuts-hopes-of-easing-u-s-china-trade-tensions-global.md) | +0.9% | +4.8% |
| WTI | 2026-09-09 | [US EIA hikes oil price forecasts as Iran war drains global stockpile By Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17665-us-eia-hikes-oil-price-forecasts-as-iran-war-drains-global-stockpile-by-reuters.md) | +13.7% | +0.1% |
| WTI | 2017-09-12 | [Oil edges up as OPEC output falls, offsets hurricane concerns](https://feedsoft.ai/events/69135-oil-edges-up-as-opec-output-falls-offsets-hurricane-concerns.md) | +3.8% | +3.2% |
| WTI | 2018-01-19 | [IEA Sees Oil Markets Tightening as PDVSA Output](https://feedsoft.ai/events/66904-iea-sees-oil-markets-tightening-as-pdvsa-output.md) | +2.5% | -3.9% |

## Sources

- bairdmaritime.com: https://www.bairdmaritime.com/shipping/tankers/iea-warns-of-global-oil-deficit-as-iran-conflict-hits-output

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.