# US EIA concedes Middle East supply disruptions are far worse than prior estimates | Reuters

> The US EIA raised its estimate of Middle East supply disruption, saying it was far worse than earlier projections. It expects Brent to average about $106 per barrel in May and June, easing to about $89 in the fourth quarter as Gulf production recovers.

- Date: 2026-05-12 · published 2026-05-12T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/19444-us-eia-concedes-middle-east-supply-disruptions-are-far-worse-than-prior
- Commodities: [Crude Oil (Brent)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BRENT.md), [Crude Oil (WTI)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WTI.md)

## Why it matters

A government forecast of prolonged supply loss supports higher energy input costs for animal feed producers and strengthens the case for elevated biofuel-linked demand for vegetable oils.

## Read by commodity

- WTI: bullish ▲
- BRENT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| BRENT | 2026-03-12 | [World faces largest-ever oil supply disruption on Middle East war, IEA says \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9389-world-faces-largest-ever-oil-supply-disruption-on-middle-east-war-iea-says.md) | +23.1% | +16.8% |
| BRENT | 2026-07-31 | [Oil prices seen gaining as Middle East supply disruptions persist: Reuters poll \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18513-oil-prices-seen-gaining-as-middle-east-supply-disruptions-persist-reuters-poll.md) | -4.9% | -0.6% |
| BRENT | 2026-09-09 | [US EIA hikes oil price forecasts as Iran war drains global stockpile By Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17665-us-eia-hikes-oil-price-forecasts-as-iran-war-drains-global-stockpile-by-reuters.md) | +17.0% | +10.2% |
| BRENT | 2024-09-10 | [US EIA lifts oil demand forecast, says prices will recover to above $80/bbl \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10170-us-eia-lifts-oil-demand-forecast-says-prices-will-recover-to-above-80-bbl.md) | +1.7% | +12.8% |
| BRENT | 2026-10-28 | [US crude and distillate inventories fall, gasoline stocks rise, EIA says By Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/271-us-crude-and-distillate-inventories-fall-gasoline-stocks-rise-eia-says-by.md) | -4.7% | — |
| WTI | 2026-03-12 | [World faces largest-ever oil supply disruption on Middle East war, IEA says \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9389-world-faces-largest-ever-oil-supply-disruption-on-middle-east-war-iea-says.md) | +10.6% | +13.9% |
| WTI | 2026-07-31 | [Oil prices seen gaining as Middle East supply disruptions persist: Reuters poll \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18513-oil-prices-seen-gaining-as-middle-east-supply-disruptions-persist-reuters-poll.md) | -7.4% | -0.3% |
| WTI | 2026-09-09 | [US EIA hikes oil price forecasts as Iran war drains global stockpile By Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17665-us-eia-hikes-oil-price-forecasts-as-iran-war-drains-global-stockpile-by-reuters.md) | +13.7% | +0.1% |

## Sources

- reuters.com: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-governments-energy-arm-assumes-strait-hormuz-will-stay-shut-through-late-may-2026-05-12/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.